How tech policy may dominate Trump’s presidential agenda

Shifting tech policy landscape: The upcoming Trump administration is expected to take a more offensive approach to technology policy, focusing on how the US can dominate key areas like artificial intelligence, space industry, biotech, and materials science to maintain an edge against China in the ongoing technology cold war.

• The previous two administrations focused primarily on defensive measures, such as curbing China’s ability to access American innovation and implementing export restrictions on US technology.
• The CHIPS Act, aimed at onshoring and diversifying the semiconductor supply chain, was a continuation of this defensive strategy.
• The next four years are likely to see a shift towards proactive measures to ensure US dominance in emerging technologies.

Key areas of focus:

1. Basic research funding: The administration’s approach to federal funding for basic research remains uncertain.

• Trump’s promise to reduce government spending may conflict with the need for increased funding in cutting-edge AI research.
• The National AI Resource pilot program, which offers compute resources for government and academic researchers, could be a key indicator of the administration’s priorities.

2. Strategic use of semiconductor technology: High-performance chips crucial for AI applications may be leveraged as bargaining tools in international negotiations.

• The US has been cautious about exporting powerful chips to countries like China or those with poor human rights records.
• Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have been pushing for increased chip imports, which could be used as leverage in broader geopolitical discussions.

3. AI development in national security: Despite Republican preferences for smaller government intervention, national security could be an exception for AI investment.

• There may be arguments for building cutting-edge AI data centers for the Department of Defense, National Security Agency, and other government agencies.
• Elon Musk‘s companies, particularly SpaceX and potentially xAI, could play a significant role in government contracts, similar to Google’s involvement during the Obama administration.

4. Biotech advancements: The rapidly evolving field of biotech, driven by AI and robotics, presents both opportunities and challenges.

• Recent breakthroughs, such as AI-assisted protein structure prediction, are transforming medicine into a software problem.
• The administration may focus on funding and accelerating US development in this area while potentially implementing additional export controls on Chinese biotech.

5. Antitrust approach: Trump’s stance on antitrust issues may shift compared to his first term.

• Previously, Trump broke with conservative orthodoxy by bringing antitrust lawsuits against major tech companies.
• With changes in social media ownership and the growth of conservative voices online, the focus on alleged censorship may diminish.

6. Immigration policy for skilled workers: The current US system for skilled worker immigration faces challenges that the administration may address.

• Issues include the misuse of H-1B visas and difficulties for talented PhD students and workers from countries like China and India to obtain permanent residency.
• With control of all three branches of government, Republicans may propose reforms to address these problems.

Potential winners and losers: Companies like OpenAI may face challenges under the new administration due to existing antitrust scrutiny and political affiliations.

• OpenAI’s partnership with Microsoft could prove crucial in navigating potential regulatory hurdles.
• Microsoft’s deep involvement in government contracts and President Brad Smith’s political acumen may help mitigate risks for associated companies.

Broader implications: The tech policy decisions made during Trump’s presidency could have far-reaching consequences for America’s global technological leadership. The administration’s ability to balance national security concerns, economic interests, and innovation will be crucial in shaping the country’s competitive edge against China and other emerging tech powers. As the AI revolution accelerates, the policies implemented in the next four years may determine the long-term trajectory of US technological dominance and economic prosperity.