Will there be a billion humanoid robots worldwide by 2040?

Humanoid robots are on the verge of becoming a commercial reality, with major technology companies preparing for mass production starting in 2025. This technological leap represents a significant evolution beyond traditional industrial robotics, powered by advances in artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, and materials science. The coming humanoid robot revolution could fundamentally transform economies by dramatically reducing costs while enabling humans to pursue more creative endeavors.

The big picture: The humanoid robotics market is poised for explosive growth, with leading financial institutions projecting market valuations ranging from $38 billion by 2035 (Goldman Sachs) to an extraordinary $24 trillion (Ark Invest).

• Morgan Stanley forecasts 63 million humanoid robots will be operating in the United States alone by 2050.
• Tech industry leaders including Elon Musk and Brett Adcock have made bold predictions that between 1-10 billion humanoid robots could exist worldwide by 2040.

Key players: Several technology companies are at the forefront of developing advanced humanoid robots with increasingly sophisticated capabilities.

• Boston Dynamics continues developing advanced bipedal humanoid robots with integrated AI systems.
• Tesla is creating Optimus, designed as a general-purpose humanoid robot capable of performing a wide range of tasks.
• Ainos is pioneering sensory robotics with their AI Nose technology, potentially giving robots new ways to interact with their environment.

Industry momentum: Research organization Third Bridge reports that mass production of humanoid robots is expected to begin in 2025, with Tesla, Figure AI, and Unitree all preparing for commercial launch.

Why this matters: The widespread adoption of humanoid robots could fundamentally transform economic structures by dramatically reducing the cost of goods and services while potentially freeing humans from routine labor to focus on creative and intellectual pursuits.