What Trump’s return as President means for tech

The big picture: Donald Trump‘s second term as president, beginning in January 2025, promises significant changes in tech policy, with implications for AI, antitrust enforcement, and electric vehicles.

• Trump’s approach to tech regulation is expected to be less constrained and potentially more erratic than previous administrations, influenced by personal relationships and grievances.
• Many tech CEOs have adopted an apolitical public stance while continuing to lobby behind the scenes, with some, like Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk, aligning themselves more closely with Trump.

AI policy shifts: Trump’s administration is likely to take a more hands-off approach to AI regulation, prioritizing industry growth over potential risks.

• The Biden administration’s AI executive order, which focused on testing standards and discrimination safeguards, is expected to be repealed.
• Elon Musk, who runs xAI and has been critical of competitors like OpenAI, may exert significant influence on AI policy under Trump.
• Copyright issues surrounding generative AI training data remain a key area of uncertainty.

Antitrust enforcement: The approach to tech monopolies may become more personalized and less predictable under Trump.

• Existing legal battles against major tech companies like Meta, Google, Apple, and Amazon are likely to continue, but with potentially more modest remedies.
• Merger approvals could become swifter, and recently revised merger guidelines might be unraveled.
• Trump’s personal views on specific companies could significantly impact enforcement decisions.

TikTok’s uncertain future: Despite Trump’s recent shift in stance on TikTok, the app’s fate remains precarious.

• The recently passed law requiring ByteDance to divest TikTok by mid-January 2025 limits Trump’s ability to unilaterally save the app.
• Trump could grant a 90-day extension for divestiture but would need to certify to Congress that a plan is in place.
• The outcome of ongoing legal challenges to the divestiture law will be crucial in determining TikTok’s future in the US.

Trade policies and China: Trump’s campaign promises suggest a continuation and potential escalation of his first-term trade war with China.

• Proposed tariffs of 60% to 100% on Chinese imports could significantly impact tech companies relying on Chinese components or markets.
• The severity of these policies could have far-reaching consequences for the tech industry and the broader US economy.

Net neutrality and telecom policy: A Trump-led FCC is likely to abandon efforts to reclassify broadband providers as common carriers.

• Net neutrality efforts face a 90% chance of being abandoned under Trump’s FCC.
• Rules governing TV station ownership and broadcast mergers may be loosened.
• Elon Musk’s Starlink could benefit from potential changes to broadband infrastructure investment programs.

Content moderation and online speech: Trump’s administration may seek to punish companies for certain content moderation decisions.

• Potential changes to Section 230 liability protections could allow for greater government intervention in content moderation practices.
• Any executive or legislative changes to online speech rules would likely face scrutiny from the Supreme Court.

Electric vehicles and climate policy: EV tax credits and other climate-focused initiatives may be at risk under Trump.

• There’s only a 30% chance of continued EV tax credits under a Trump administration.
• Trump may favor consumer incentives benefiting traditional automakers over EV-specific policies.

Cryptocurrency regulation: The crypto industry is likely to see more favorable treatment under Trump.

• Trump has positioned himself as pro-crypto, calling for making the US a “Bitcoin superpower.”
• The expected ouster of SEC Chair Gary Gensler could lead to more permissive regulation of the cryptocurrency industry.

Analyzing deeper: While Trump’s tech policies promise significant changes, their implementation will depend on various factors, including congressional support, court rulings, and the influence of key allies like Elon Musk. The tech industry may face a period of uncertainty and potential disruption as it navigates the shifting regulatory landscape under Trump’s second term.