VC Tomasz Tunguz’s biggest AI predictions for 2025

In his annual forward-looking analysis, venture capitalist Tomasz Tunguz envisions 2025 as a pivotal year where artificial intelligence reshapes the venture capital landscape, enterprise software evolution, and digital infrastructure fundamentals. His detailed predictions span market dynamics, AI competition, enterprise transformation, and the continued maturation of cryptocurrency markets, painting a picture of an industry poised for significant change.

Market dynamics and liquidity: The technology sector is poised for significant financial activity in 2025, driven by pent-up demand and evolving AI capabilities.

• ServiceTitan’s successful IPO is expected to catalyze a wave of public offerings, including high-profile companies like Stripe and Databricks
• Merger and acquisition activity is predicted to reach five-year highs, supported by a more permissive FTC policy
• Venture capital investment is projected to maintain levels around $210-230 billion, while VC fundraising could increase by 20% as limited partners reinvest distributions

AI landscape evolution: The artificial intelligence competitive landscape continues to shift with new developments from major players.

• Google is expected to build on its recent momentum in AI, following its rise to a top position in OpenRouter rankings
• Grok, backed by Elon Musk’s governmental influence, is anticipated to emerge as a serious competitor alongside OpenAI and Anthropic
• Voice interface adoption is predicted to accelerate dramatically as on-device speech models improve, potentially marking the beginning of a post-keyboard era

Enterprise technology transformation: Significant changes are expected in how businesses manage and utilize data and software.

• The Modern Data Stack sector is likely to see over $3 billion in M&A activity as companies seek to consolidate platforms
• Software and data engineering teams are predicted to become more integrated, enabling the emergence of highly efficient AI-native companies
• A unified approach to data architecture is anticipated, with data lakes becoming the standard for observability, SIEM, and business intelligence workloads

Digital infrastructure and cryptocurrency: Major developments are predicted in both traditional and blockchain-based infrastructure.

• Hyperscaler data center spending is expected to exceed $125 billion, driven by AI-related GPU demand
• The U.S. web3 engineering population is projected to grow by 25% amid increasing government acceptance
• Stablecoin supply could increase by 50% to $300 billion, with transaction volumes potentially exceeding Visa’s by three times

Looking beyond the predictions: While these forecasts paint a picture of significant technological advancement and market evolution, the real challenge will lie in how organizations adapt to and implement these changes while managing associated risks and maintaining competitive advantages. The integration of AI and voice interfaces, in particular, could fundamentally alter how future generations interact with technology.