US PC shipments fell 1.4% year-over-year to 18.6 million units in Q2 2025 as vendors cleared excess inventory, though commercial sales grew 4% while consumer demand remained weak. The decline comes as businesses rush to upgrade systems ahead of Microsoft’s Windows 10 end-of-support deadline in October 2025, with analysts predicting modest 3% annual growth through 2026 driven by AI-capable PC adoption and the Windows 11 transition.
What you should know: The PC market slowdown was largely anticipated as vendors worked through inventory stockpiled earlier to avoid potential tariff exposure.
- Commercial sector growth of 4% offset declining consumer demand, with businesses increasingly focused on AI-capable systems ahead of the Windows 10 deadline.
- Apple emerged as the fastest-growing major vendor with 15.5% year-over-year growth, while Lenovo gained 5.1%.
- HP and Dell both declined, falling 4.8% and 3.5% respectively, with Acer experiencing a sharper 10.5% drop.
AI adoption accelerates but faces integration hurdles: Business AI usage has more than doubled over the past two years, with a 50% increase in 2025 alone, though growth rates are slowing among large enterprises.
- “According to the US Census Business Trends and Outlook Survey, business adoption of AI has more than doubled over the last two years and seen a 50% increase in usage this year alone,” said Greg Davis, analyst at Canalys, a market research firm.
- However, concerns about “pilot purgatory” are emerging as companies struggle with practical AI integration into existing workflows.
- PC vendors must now demonstrate concrete value propositions for AI-capable devices as businesses encounter real-world implementation challenges.
Consumer spending remains cautious: Economic pressures continue to dampen consumer PC purchases despite the approaching Windows 10 deadline.
- “Between persistent inflation and weak job reports in recent months, more consumers are exhibiting cautious spending, and premium electronics are not being prioritized as much as essentials like food and energy expenses,” Davis explained.
- Many consumers prefer to wait until their current PCs fail rather than proactively upgrade, despite increasing awareness of the Windows 10 end-of-support timeline.
The big picture: Microsoft and PC partners are intensifying upgrade campaigns as the October 2025 Windows 10 deadline approaches, emphasizing the need for systems capable of handling AI workloads.
- Analysts forecast commercial shipments will continue rising through 2026 as businesses complete their upgrade cycles.
- Consumer demand may experience sharper fluctuations depending on broader economic conditions and job market stability.
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