AI-to-pipelayer-pipeline? Trade school enrollment surges 6.6% as students seek AI-proof careers

Generation Z is abandoning traditional college paths and flocking to trade schools, with enrollment in programs like HVAC and welding expected to grow 6.6% annually. This shift reflects growing concerns about AI displacing white-collar jobs and the financial burden of college debt, while skilled trades offer comparable wages without requiring four-year degrees.

The big picture: Young workers are increasingly viewing trades as “AI-proof” careers that can’t be automated, with one industry expert noting “AI can’t install an HVAC system.”

Key enrollment trends: Trade-focused education is experiencing unprecedented growth across multiple pathways.

• Fall enrollment at trade schools is projected to grow 6.6% annually, marking a dramatic shift from pre-pandemic stagnation
• Public two-year community college vocational programs have surged nearly 20% since 2020, compared to just 2.1% growth at four-year institutions
• Registered apprenticeships, where trainees earn while learning, have similarly risen over recent years

The financial appeal: Trade careers offer competitive compensation without the typical college debt burden.

• HVAC technicians earn a median annual salary of nearly $60,000, comparable to liberal arts graduates
• The highest-paid 10% of HVAC workers make more than $91,000 annually
• Average student loan debt reaches nearly $43,000, making trade school’s $20,000-$25,000 programs attractive alternatives

What’s driving the shift: AI anxiety and changing career priorities are reshaping young workers’ decisions.

• More than half of Gen Z workers in a 1,000-person Zety survey said they’re seriously considering blue-collar or skilled trade fields
• Career expert Jasmine Escalera describes this as an “AI-xiety pivot,” where young people question whether degrees are worthwhile
• A Stanford University study found “substantial declines in employment for early-career workers (ages 22-25) in occupations most exposed to AI,” like software engineering

Real-world success stories: Trade school graduates are finding immediate career opportunities and financial stability.

• David McLean, 23, graduated twice from StrataTech’s Tulsa Welding School with four certifications in welding, electrical, HVAC, and solar
• Starting electrical work pays $20-$30 hourly but ramps up to $45+ with experience
• McLean has invested in three properties and expects to buy a fourth next year: “Electrical will be the reason why I buy my fourth one next year”

Industry response: Companies are partnering with trade schools to address skilled worker shortages.

• Midea, a major home appliance producer, has teamed up with more than a dozen trade schools to train HVAC technicians
• StrataTech Education Group reports 7% enrollment growth in July compared to the previous year
• Programs typically last seven to nine months, allowing students to “immediately get to working” compared to four-year degree timelines

The challenges: Physical demands remain the primary concern for potential trade workers.

• 38% of Gen Z respondents in the Zety survey cited “physical labor demands as their biggest hesitation” in pursuing blue-collar careers
• However, growing student populations now include women, recent high school graduates, and career switchers

What they’re saying: Industry leaders emphasize the stability and earning potential of skilled trades.

• “There’s nothing wrong with blue collar. There’s nothing wrong with getting your hands a little dirty and sweating a little bit, and making a little bit of money in the process,” said David Rames, senior product manager at Midea
• “When it comes to the safe job that will always exist, I don’t know if there are many of those anymore,” noted career expert Escalera. “Plumbers will always have jobs”