The year of the AI election wasn’t quite what most had predicted — here’s why

The impact of artificial intelligence on global elections in 2024 was more nuanced and behind-the-scenes than many experts initially predicted.

Key findings: Contrary to widespread concerns, generative AI’s influence on elections manifested primarily through operational support rather than through deepfakes and disinformation.

• Political campaigns largely avoided using AI-generated deepfakes, citing technical complexities and emerging legal restrictions
• Approximately half of tracked deepfakes served as expressions of support or fandom rather than tools for deception
• Some notable exceptions occurred, such as misleading deepfakes circulated before Bangladesh’s elections to promote voter boycotts

Campaign operations: AI technology found significant practical applications in campaign management and voter outreach.

• Campaign teams utilized AI for routine tasks including email composition, advertisement creation, and speech writing
• The technology proved valuable for language translation services and campaign strategy development
• Both Microsoft and Google provided AI training programs to United States political campaigns

Detection challenges: The ability to identify AI-generated content remains problematic, particularly in regions outside North America and Western Europe.

• Current detection tools struggle to keep pace with rapidly advancing AI technology
• The existence of synthetic media has created a “liar’s dividend,” enabling politicians to falsely claim authentic media is fabricated
• This technological gap has implications for election integrity and public trust

Democratic implications: AI’s role in electoral processes presents both opportunities and challenges for democratic systems.

• Smaller political campaigns could benefit from access to AI tools that level the resource playing field
• In authoritarian states like Belarus, AI-powered virtual candidates emerged as symbols of political protest
• The technology’s accessibility could democratize campaign capabilities while simultaneously raising concerns about manipulation

Future trajectory: While 2024 may not have fulfilled predictions about AI’s dominance in elections, its influence in political processes is likely to expand.

• The current implementation of AI in political campaigns represents early adoption rather than peak utilization
• Political organizations are still exploring effective ways to integrate AI tools while navigating ethical and legal considerations
• The focus appears to be shifting from sensational applications like deepfakes to practical campaign operations

Looking ahead: The integration of AI in electoral processes is evolving toward more subtle and systematic applications, suggesting that future elections may see AI’s influence grow through operational efficiency rather than viral content manipulation.