The Vergecast’s predictions for AI’s winners and losers of 2025

The Vergecast team has made bold predictions about the technology landscape in 2025, offering insights into potential industry shifts, product launches, and market dynamics.

Core predictions for Big Tech leadership and market dynamics: The podcast hosts largely agree that the current tech leadership landscape will remain stable through 2025, while anticipating significant market value shifts.

• All three hosts predict that current Big Tech CEOs, including Tim Cook at Apple, will retain their positions
• Two out of three hosts believe Nvidia will become the world’s most valuable company
• There’s unanimous agreement that OpenAI will officially become a for-profit company, though not yet profitable
• The hosts expect no acquisition of Snap, suggesting the social media company will maintain independence

AI and social media landscape: The discussion points to significant developments in artificial intelligence and shifting dynamics in social media platforms.

• A major AI-related scandal is unanimously predicted to emerge
• BlueSky is expected to become more relevant than Threads, though not matching its user base
• The hosts are divided on whether Apple will launch its own search engine
• Mixed predictions emerge about the success of Amazon’s new Alexa

Entertainment and gaming predictions: The streaming wars and gaming industry are expected to see substantial changes.

• Consolidation in streaming services is predicted, with at least one major platform (Max, Paramount Plus, or Peacock) expected to fold
• Netflix’s live content strategy is not expected to fully displace cable television
• Grand Theft Auto VI is largely predicted to achieve massive success
• The next Nintendo Switch release is unanimously expected to perform well

Hardware and consumer tech: The hosts share skepticism about several anticipated hardware developments.

• Folding phones are not expected to reach mainstream adoption
• The Pixel 10 is not predicted to dominate the Android market
• Two hosts reject the possibility of Apple entering the TV hardware market
• Waymo’s autonomous driving technology receives mixed predictions about its breakthrough potential

Looking beyond the predictions: While these forecasts offer intriguing possibilities, they notably reflect current market trends and existing industry dynamics rather than radical shifts. The skepticism toward certain consumer hardware innovations suggests a measured view of technological adoption rates, while the stronger consensus around market structure changes points to ongoing consolidation in key sectors.