The origins of the LA fires may never be discovered — but AI is still searching

Los Angeles faces one of its most devastating wildfire disasters in history, with up to 12,000 buildings destroyed, 100,000 people displaced, and at least two dozen deaths, while investigators struggle to determine the fires’ causes.

Current crisis overview: The Los Angeles wildfires emerged after eight months of minimal rainfall, with Santa Ana winds transforming small fires into massive infernos.

• Dry conditions and strong winds created perfect conditions for fire spread
• Multiple fires, including the Eaton Fire in Pasadena and the Palisades Fire, have caused extensive damage
• Theories about causes range from fallen power lines to ember spread, but nothing has been confirmed

Investigation challenges: The U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives leads the investigation into the Palisades Fire, but determining the cause could take months or remain unsolved.

• More than half of Western U.S. wildfires have unknown ignition sources
• High-temperature fires often destroy evidence that could reveal their cause
• Similar investigations, like the 2023 Lahaina fire in Maui, took over a year to conclude

AI’s role in wildfire investigation: The U.S. Forest Service has partnered with computer scientists to develop artificial intelligence tools that can analyze historical fire data and identify likely causes.

• A recent study by Boise State University analyzed over 150,000 unsolved wildfire cases from 1992 to 2020
• AI models showed 90% accuracy in distinguishing between lightning and human-caused fires
• The technology is less accurate (50%) when identifying specific human behaviors that caused fires

Key findings on fire causes: Research indicates that human activity is responsible for the vast majority of wildfires in Western states.

• 80% of wildfires are likely caused by human activity, with only 20% caused by lightning
• Vehicles and equipment are the primary culprits, potentially causing 21% of fires with unknown causes
• Arson and accidental ignition from activities like smoking, gunfire, and campfires account for 18% of cases

Data collection efforts: The Forest Service has expanded its wildfire archive to include more comprehensive information for investigators.

• The database now tracks weather, elevation, population density, and fire timing
• Historical data shows a shift from railroad and sawmill-caused fires to power line, firework, and firearm-related incidents
• This expanded data helps researchers identify changing patterns in fire causes

Looking forward: As climate conditions continue to create extreme fire risks, understanding ignition sources becomes increasingly crucial for prevention.

• Experts recommend proactive measures like burying power lines underground
• Power line-related fires, while less frequent, tend to burn larger areas
• Communities need to focus on building resilience rather than relying solely on fire suppression

Future implications: While AI shows promise in helping identify fire causes, the technology’s current limitations and the complex nature of fire investigation suggest that a combined approach of technological innovation and traditional investigation methods will be necessary to improve wildfire prevention and response strategies.