Superintelligent AI is more achievable than we think (relatively speaking)

Super human artificial intelligence requires relatively modest physical resources compared to other advanced technologies, making it a more achievable goal than technologies like brain emulation or space colonization.

Core argument and context: The development of superintelligent AI systems appears more feasible from a biological and computational perspective than many other futuristic technologies.

• The human brain operates on minimal energy and matter, suggesting that achieving superhuman intelligence is possible with additional computational resources
• Traditional human cognitive tasks like calculus and programming were not products of evolutionary optimization
• Modern machine learning techniques like gradient descent offer more efficient paths to intelligence than biological evolution
• Unlike evolution, AI systems can be optimized directly at the neural level for specific tasks

Key obstacles to superintelligent AI: Several potential barriers could slow or prevent the development of superintelligent AI systems.

• A possible inherent trade-off between intelligence and controllability/obedience
• Resource constraints limiting the exploration of promising approaches
• Physical limitations in hardware development
• Societal disruptions that could interrupt technological progress

Technical feasibility comparison: Other transformative technologies face significantly greater technical hurdles than AI development.

• Human brain emulation requires precise modeling of complex biological neurons, presenting substantial technical challenges
• Radical life extension must overcome fundamental biological constraints that may prove insurmountable
• Space colonization faces severe physical and engineering obstacles related to distance, radiation, and resource requirements

Resource requirements: The relatively modest physical requirements for AI development set it apart from other advanced technologies.

• AI systems can achieve significant capabilities with existing computational resources
• Current hardware and energy requirements fall within achievable ranges
• The scalability of AI systems allows for incremental progress using available technology

Path forward considerations: The development timeline for superintelligent AI may proceed independently of other technological advances.

• Multiple simultaneous barriers would need to exist to prevent superintelligent AI development
• The gap between AI capabilities and other transformative technologies may widen over time
• Successful development will require careful attention to human-AI coordination and coexistence

Future implications: The likely emergence of superintelligent AI before other transformative technologies creates unique challenges and opportunities for humanity, emphasizing the importance of developing robust frameworks for human-AI cooperation while continuing research into other technological frontiers.