Predictions for a post AGI world

The rise of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is prompting deep analysis of humanity’s future role and the economic implications of advanced AI systems.

Key philosophical questions: The fundamental differences between humans and AI systems are being reconsidered as technology advances, particularly regarding consciousness, emotions, and intelligence.

• Traditional assumptions about human uniqueness in areas like innovation, consciousness, and emotional intelligence are being challenged by advances in AI
• Leading thinkers like Vitalik Buterin suggest that emotions and intelligence are ultimately algorithmic processes that can be replicated in non-biological substrates
• The concept of “physical intelligence” is expected to be eventually mastered by humanoid robots

Mathematical foundations: Understanding intelligence requires examining its core components through the lens of mathematics and probability theory.

• Intelligence can be defined as a combination of probability theory (hypothesis searching) and optimization theory (utility maximization)
• Computational progress in AI continues to accelerate while human biological intelligence faces natural limitations
• The race for superior intelligence increasingly depends on computing power, data access, and capital investment

Economic implications: The integration of AGI into the economy will likely create distinct short-term and long-term effects on human employment and wages.

• Research suggests initial wage increases as humans leverage AI capabilities, potentially leading to 10x growth
• Long-term predictions indicate wages may eventually fall below subsistence levels around 2045
• Regulated sectors of the economy may be more resistant to AI disruption, as noted by Marc Andreessen

Human adaptation: The role of humans in an AGI-driven world will require significant adaptation and focus on higher-order skills.

• Jobs requiring complex decision-making and unpredictable problem-solving may remain human-centric
• New educational approaches and training will be needed to prepare humans for roles managing AI systems
• The concept of “doing what you love” may become more relevant, though potentially disconnected from economic success

Future scenarios: The impact of advanced AI systems presents both challenges and opportunities for human society.

• Universal basic income might emerge as one component of future economic systems
• Resource distribution algorithms could become central to economic organization
• The value of scarce resources and unique human experiences may increase

Looking ahead: The future relationship between humans and AGI will likely maintain some fundamental differences that preserve human value.

• While models can scale to serve everyone perpetually, individuals serve unique purposes in their lifetime
• Human uniqueness may shift from utility-based value to appreciation of art, beauty, and interpersonal connections
• The rarity of human experiences and creativity might become increasingly valuable in an AI-saturated world