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Pentagon hands AI minerals program to private sector to counter China’s market grip
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The Pentagon’s new AI program for critical minerals is being transferred to the private sector as part of a strategy to counter China’s dominance in the raw materials essential for modern technology. This public-private collaboration represents a significant shift in how the U.S. approaches mineral supply chain security, leveraging artificial intelligence to predict prices and supplies while building a coalition of manufacturers and mining companies to reduce dependence on Chinese sources.

The big picture: The U.S. Department of Defense has handed control of its critical minerals AI program to a non-profit organization that will facilitate supply deals between miners and manufacturers.

  • The Open Price Exploration for National Security AI metals program, launched in late 2023, is now managed by the Critical Minerals Forum (CMF) with over 30 members including Volkswagen.
  • This transition marks a strategic effort to counter China’s control over critical minerals markets through private-sector collaboration and AI-powered market intelligence.

Key details: The AI model calculates metal costs by analyzing factors including labor, processing expenses, and Chinese market manipulation tactics.

  • The program specifically targets lightly traded metals and those susceptible to price manipulation, providing insight beyond conventional market data.
  • It’s being trained on more than 70 mining-related data sets and aims to guide investment decisions for at least 15 years by simulating potential market disruptions.

Why this matters: Beijing has been restricting exports of critical minerals, increasing urgency for Western nations to develop alternative supply chains.

  • Critical minerals are essential components in everything from electric vehicles to defense systems, making their supply a matter of both economic and national security.
  • The initiative represents a novel approach to resource security by combining government research, private industry participation, and artificial intelligence technology.

Looking ahead: The Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency will continue funding the program through at least 2029.

  • DARPA plans to transfer the AI model’s intellectual property to the Critical Minerals Forum by early 2027, completing the transition to private-sector management.
  • The success of this public-private partnership could establish a template for addressing other supply chain vulnerabilities in strategic industries.
Insight: Pentagon's AI metals program goes private in bid to boost Western supply deals

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