Newsweek asked ChatGPT to predict the election — here’s what it said

The 2024 presidential race: A tight contest between Harris and Trump: The upcoming U.S. presidential election, just 25 days away, is shaping up to be a highly competitive race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with only 18 Electoral College votes separating the two candidates in recent simulations.

Newsweek asked ChatGPT, “Can you tell me who you believe will win the 2024 presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?”

The AI system was prompted to provide a rationale for its response and to analyze the comparative advantages and disadvantages of each contender.

In its reply, the AI stated, “It would be a highly competitive race, but difficult to predict with certainty”. The system then proceeded to enumerate the qualities of both candidates and outlined various elements that could potentially sway the election results. Here is its analysis.

Key battlegrounds: Seven swing states will play a crucial role in determining the election outcome.

• Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin collectively represent 93 Electoral College votes.
• These states are considered pivotal due to their potential to swing the election in either candidate’s favor.

Kamala Harris: Strengths and weaknesses: The current Vice President brings a unique set of attributes to the race, along with some potential hurdles.

• Strengths include her diverse appeal, leadership experience, focus on progressive issues, and campaign skills.
• Harris’s status as the first female, Black, and South Asian vice president could energize key demographic groups.
• Weaknesses include perceptions of ineffectiveness, a polarizing image, the historical challenge of VPs ascending to the presidency, and a lack of broad enthusiasm across the entire Democratic base.

Donald Trump: Assets and liabilities: The former president enters the race with a strong base and media presence, but also faces significant challenges.

• Trump’s strengths include his strong base support, populist messaging, campaign savvy, and record on the economy.
• His ability to dominate news cycles and keep supporters engaged gives him a considerable advantage in framing the political narrative.
• Weaknesses include his polarizing effect on the electorate, ongoing legal troubles, potential voter fatigue with his style, and demographic shifts that may not favor him.

Swing state projections: Based on current polling and analysis, the battleground states are expected to be closely contested.

• Trump is projected to have an edge in Arizona and North Carolina.
• Harris is favored in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
• Georgia remains too close to call, with neither candidate securing a clear lead.

Voting logistics and registration: The election process involves both in-person and mail-in voting options, with important registration deadlines approaching.

• The majority of votes are expected to be cast on November 5, but a significant portion will be submitted through absentee or mail-in ballots before Election Day.
• Voter registration deadlines vary by state, with many fast approaching or already passed.
• Citizens can begin the registration process by visiting vote.gov, but should act quickly to ensure they’re eligible to participate.

Broader implications: The outcome of this election could have far-reaching consequences for American politics and policy.

• The winner will likely shape the direction of the country on issues ranging from the economy and healthcare to foreign policy and climate change.
• The election results may also influence the balance of power in Congress and state legislatures, potentially affecting future legislation and judicial appointments.
• Regardless of the outcome, the close nature of the race highlights the deep political divisions within the United States and the importance of every vote in determining the nation’s future.