Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott believes AI progress will continue despite skepticism, arguing that large language model (LLM) “scaling laws” will drive breakthroughs as models get larger and have access to more computing power.
Scaling laws and AI progress: Scott maintains that scaling up model size and training data can lead to significant AI improvements, countering critics who argue that progress has plateaued around GPT-4 class models:
- He acknowledges the challenge of infrequent data points in the field, as new models often take years to develop, but expresses confidence that future iterations will show improvements, particularly in areas where current models struggle.
- Scott suggests that perceptions of slowing progress may be due to the rapid onset of AI in the public eye, when LLMs have actually been developing for years prior to the launch of GPT-3 and GPT-4.
Betting on continued breakthroughs: Scott’s stance indicates that tech giants like Microsoft still feel justified in heavily investing in larger AI models, expecting continued progress rather than hitting a capability plateau:
- Given Microsoft’s $13 billion technology-sharing deal with OpenAI and strong marketing of its own AI features, the company has a strong interest in maintaining the perception of continued progress.
- Some critics argue that Microsoft and OpenAI may be defending continued investment into generative AI by suggesting they have secret, breakthrough technology that will “break the bones of every hater.”
Broader context: While Scott remains optimistic about the future of AI progress, the debate over scaling laws and the potential for LLMs to plateau highlights the uncertainty and conflicting perspectives within the AI community. As companies like Microsoft and OpenAI continue to invest heavily in larger models, only time will tell if their bets pay off with significant leaps in AI capabilities or if critics’ concerns about diminishing returns prove accurate. The outcome of this debate will have significant implications for the future direction and pace of AI development.
Recent Stories
DOE fusion roadmap targets 2030s commercial deployment as AI drives $9B investment
The Department of Energy has released a new roadmap targeting commercial-scale fusion power deployment by the mid-2030s, though the plan lacks specific funding commitments and relies on scientific breakthroughs that have eluded researchers for decades. The strategy emphasizes public-private partnerships and positions AI as both a research tool and motivation for developing fusion energy to meet data centers' growing electricity demands. The big picture: The DOE's roadmap aims to "deliver the public infrastructure that supports the fusion private sector scale up in the 2030s," but acknowledges it cannot commit to specific funding levels and remains subject to Congressional appropriations. Why...
Oct 17, 2025Tying it all together: Credo’s purple cables power the $4B AI data center boom
Credo, a Silicon Valley semiconductor company specializing in data center cables and chips, has seen its stock price more than double this year to $143.61, following a 245% surge in 2024. The company's signature purple cables, which cost between $300-$500 each, have become essential infrastructure for AI data centers, positioning Credo to capitalize on the trillion-dollar AI infrastructure expansion as hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Elon Musk's xAI rapidly build out massive computing facilities. What you should know: Credo's active electrical cables (AECs) are becoming indispensable for connecting the massive GPU clusters required for AI training and inference. The company...
Oct 17, 2025Vatican launches Latin American AI network for human development
The Vatican hosted a two-day conference bringing together 50 global experts to explore how artificial intelligence can advance peace, social justice, and human development. The event launched the Latin American AI Network for Integral Human Development and established principles for ethical AI governance that prioritize human dignity over technological advancement. What you should know: The Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences, the Vatican's research body for social issues, organized the "Digital Rerum Novarum" conference on October 16-17, combining academic research with practical AI applications. Participants included leading experts from MIT, Microsoft, Columbia University, the UN, and major European institutions. The conference...