Keri Lake believes she will win Arizona’s Senate race because AI told her so

AI-powered polling claims in Arizona Senate race: Republican candidate Kari Lake asserts her campaign’s internal polling, which incorporates AI analysis of social media and internet data, shows her leading in the closely watched Arizona Senate race.

• Lake claims to be ahead of her Democratic opponent, Rep. Ruben Gallego, despite many other polls indicating otherwise.
• The Republican candidate’s polling methodology combines traditional polling with AI analysis of social media and internet content, which she believes gives her campaign a more accurate picture of the race.
• Lake, a former news anchor turned politician, previously ran for governor of Arizona in 2022, losing narrowly to Democrat Katie Hobbs.

Contrasting poll results: While Lake’s internal polling suggests she is leading, other recent polls paint a different picture of the Arizona Senate race.

• A New York Times/Sienna poll conducted between October 25 and November 2 showed Gallego leading with 48% support compared to Lake’s 41%, with 10% of voters undecided.
• Poll averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics indicate that while Lake has been gaining ground, Gallego still maintains a narrow lead.
• One poll from AtlasIntel, conducted on November 2, showed Lake with a slight 1.7 point advantage over Gallego, falling within the poll’s margin of error.

AI in political polling: The use of artificial intelligence in political polling is an emerging trend that offers both potential benefits and concerns.

• The ASH Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation at Harvard Kennedy School suggests that AI has the potential to revolutionize modern political polling by providing instant surveys and summaries of online opinions.
• AI-powered polling could help address the declining response rates to traditional telephone surveys, which have fallen from 37% in 1997 to just 6% in 2018, according to a Pew Research Center study.
• AI technologies can analyze vast amounts of online data to understand trends by demographic and offer extrapolations to new circumstances and policy issues.

Public concerns about AI in elections: Despite the potential benefits, American voters express significant reservations about the role of AI in political campaigns.

• A Pew Research Center study found that only 5% of respondents believed AI would be used primarily for good purposes in the 2024 presidential campaign.
• 39% of those surveyed expected AI to be used mainly for harmful purposes during the campaign.
• 57% of respondents expressed concern about AI being used to spread false information about candidates and campaigns, with similar levels of worry across party lines.

Broader implications of AI in political forecasting: The integration of AI into political polling and campaign strategies raises important questions about the future of electoral predictions and public trust in political processes.

• While AI-powered polling may offer new insights and potentially more accurate predictions, its use also introduces new variables that could affect public perception of election integrity.
• The lack of transparency in AI algorithms and data sources could lead to increased skepticism about polling results, particularly if they contradict traditional polling methods.
• As campaigns increasingly rely on AI-driven analytics, there may be a growing need for regulations and standards to ensure fair and accurate use of these technologies in political contexts.