Kai-Fu Lee predicts only 7 AI foundation models will survive globally

Prominent AI entrepreneur Kai-Fu Lee predicts a major consolidation in the AI industry, with just seven foundational models surviving globally across the U.S. and China markets. This forecast reflects the intensifying competition among AI powerhouses as technical barriers and capital requirements create natural selection pressures in the race to dominate large language model development.

The big picture: Lee anticipates that only three Chinese AI models will ultimately survive amid a domestic market shakeout triggered by DeepSeek’s emergence, while four U.S. companies will dominate the American market.

Lee’s prediction: The computer scientist and entrepreneur believes DeepSeek, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., and ByteDance Ltd. will emerge as the dominant players in China’s AI foundation model landscape.

• For the U.S. market, Lee expects xAI, OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic to establish themselves as the primary AI leaders.

Why this matters: Foundation models represent the underlying technology powering most consumer and enterprise AI applications, making market consolidation a critical factor for the industry’s future direction and control.

Behind the numbers: The development of advanced AI models requires massive computing resources and significant funding, creating natural barriers to entry that favor well-resourced technology giants and specialized AI startups with substantial backing.

Industry context: DeepSeek has emerged as a formidable competitor in China’s AI race, challenging established tech giants with its advanced capabilities and efficient performance.

• The predicted consolidation mirrors broader industry trends where early competition eventually narrows to a handful of market leaders controlling foundational technology platforms.