It’s no sweat for AI and satellites as India attempts to map deadly heat at building level

India‘s government is deploying artificial intelligence and satellite technology to map urban heat vulnerability at the building level, with organizations like SEEDS, a Delhi-based disaster-preparedness nonprofit, and Microsoft developing models that can assess indoor heat risk for individual structures. This granular approach addresses a critical gap in current heat action plans, which fail to target relief efforts to the most vulnerable populations during deadly heat waves that regularly push temperatures above 45°C (113°F).

The big picture: Traditional heat action plans operate at city-wide scales, missing crucial variations in heat exposure that can differ by up to 9°C within the same neighborhood based on building materials, density, and green cover.

How the AI system works: The Sunny Lives model, developed by SEEDS and Microsoft, combines satellite imagery with machine learning to identify building types and predict indoor temperatures.

• The system analyzes roof materials—tin, concrete, tiles, or plastic sheeting—to calculate heat absorption patterns, finding that tin-roofed homes can reach 45°C indoors when outside temperatures hit 40°C.
• It incorporates wet-bulb temperature calculations that factor in humidity levels to determine when human cooling mechanisms like sweating become ineffective.
• The model was trained using sensor data from different building types, then scaled up using satellite imagery to assess heat risk across entire settlements.

Why this matters: Current heat action plans cover 95% of India without detailed mapping of heat-prone areas or vulnerable populations, according to a 2023 study, making it impossible to allocate resources effectively.

• Delhi’s informal workforce—street vendors, rickshaw pullers, and waste pickers—continues working through extreme heat because “we earn each day to eat each day,” as waste picker Zubaida explains.
• Heat-related deaths are rising as India approaches the 1.5°C global warming threshold, making targeted interventions increasingly critical.

Key implementation challenges: Heat action plans aren’t legally binding in most Indian states, and heat waves aren’t recognized as official disasters eligible for federal funding.

• Only eight states have formally declared heat waves as disasters, meaning local authorities aren’t obligated to prioritize heat response.
• Promised relief measures like 3,000 water coolers in Delhi public spaces and daytime shelters for outdoor workers remain unimplemented.

What researchers are proposing: Ward-level heat action plans that can address micro-climate variations and target specific vulnerable populations.

• Building heat vulnerability indices based on age, gender, and socioeconomic status to identify high-risk groups.
• Deploying specific interventions like altered market hours, targeted cooling centers, and rehydration stations in high-footfall areas rather than generic advisories.

The technical breakthrough: Researchers at ATREE, a nonprofit research organization, found temperature differences of up to 9°C within a single two-square-kilometer ward in Bengaluru, demonstrating how building density, materials, and green cover create heat islands at the block level.

What they’re saying: “The same temperature doesn’t impact everyone the same way, and our planning has to reflect that,” says Anshu Sharma, cofounder of SEEDS.

• “We now have the tech to zoom in down to individual buildings and clusters, and it’s available and affordable,” Sharma adds.
• Oxford’s Radhika Khosla, an associate professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, emphasizes that “often where the actions are taken may not be where the most vulnerable are” due to lack of granular data.

Looking ahead: India has existing funding pathways through 18 centrally sponsored schemes that could support long-term heat resilience, but awareness among local officials remains low, requiring large-scale capacity building as the country faces increasingly severe heat waves.