How AI Is Shaping the Future of Aerial Combat

The rise of AI in aerial combat is offering a glimpse into the future of dogfights, with both the US and UK developing AI co-pilots that can outmaneuver human pilots in simulated battles.

Key developments in AI dogfighting: The US Air Force and BAE Systems have made significant strides in creating AI pilots capable of engaging in aerial combat:

• The US Air Force demonstrated an AI flying an F-16 jet in combat maneuvers in 2023, the culmination of years of work aimed at developing an AI that could outperform human pilots.
• BAE Systems commissioned Turkish aerospace engineers to develop an AI co-pilot that could assist real-life aviators in dogfights and be integrated into sophisticated warfighting simulators.

How the AI pilots learn and evolve: The AI programs learn through trial and error, constantly refining their tactics based on the outcomes of simulated dogfights:

• The Turkish engineers’ AI made millions of mistakes during the learning process, with the teaching process likened to “guiding a child.”
• In the US, eight AI companies competed in the 2020 AlphaDogfight Trials Event, where their AI programs engaged in simulated dogfights against each other and an experienced USAF fighter pilot, with the winning AI repeatedly beating the human pilot.

Unconventional tactics and adaptability: The AI pilots have demonstrated the ability to develop novel strategies and adapt to changing circumstances:

• During the AlphaDogfight trials, the winning AI used a head-on merge with the target as an opportunity to fire guns, going against accepted air fighting doctrine and showcasing its ability to reject established rules when it identified a better move.
• The AI can evaluate an emerging dogfight and warn the pilot of the probability of losing, making split-second decisions based on the situation.

Integrating AI into real-world scenarios: While the AI pilots have shown impressive capabilities in simulations, there are still challenges to overcome before they can be fully integrated into real-world combat scenarios:

• The AI-driven F-16 used by the US Air Force still requires a safety pilot on board for take-off and landing, who can switch off the AI at any time.
• For an AI pilot to be effective, it needs to win the trust of human pilots and be able to integrate into the wider forces around it.

The future of AI in aerial combat: As AI continues to evolve at a rapid pace, it is likely to play an increasingly important role in aerial combat, although it may not entirely replace human pilots in the near future:

• While the AI pilots have demonstrated superior performance in simulated dogfights, they are not yet seen as a substitute for the thousands of hours of experience that human pilots gain from flying in demanding circumstances.
• AI can, however, help reduce pilot overload in the cockpit and contribute to more realistic online combat exercises, enhancing the training and preparedness of human pilots.

Broader implications: The development of AI dogfighters highlights the growing influence of civilian technology on the defense industry and raises questions about the future of human-machine collaboration in warfare:

• BAE Systems’ Michael Hull notes that defense companies increasingly pull technology like AI from the public domain, rather than innovations emerging solely from within the defense industry.
• As AI becomes more sophisticated and capable of explaining its actions and motives, it may lead to a new era of human-machine teaming in aerial combat, with AI co-pilots working alongside human pilots to enhance decision-making and combat effectiveness.