Global Democracy Hits 50-Year Low as AI Threats Emerge

Global democracy in decline: The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) reports that 2023 marked the worst decline in credible elections and parliamentary oversight in almost 50 years.

• The decline is attributed to government intimidation, foreign interference, disinformation, and the misuse of artificial intelligence in campaigns.
• This marks the eighth consecutive year of global democratic backsliding, with 47% of countries experiencing a decline in key democratic indicators over the past five years.
• Election credibility is threatened by dropping voter turnout, with the average percentage of the voting age population casting ballots declining from 65.2% in 2008 to 55.5% in 2023.

Challenges to election integrity: The report highlights increasing threats to the legitimacy and acceptance of election results worldwide.

• One in three elections is now being disputed in some way, indicating a growing trend of contestation.
• Nearly 20% of elections between 2020 and 2024 saw losing candidates or parties rejecting the results.
• The same percentage of elections were decided by court appeals, further complicating the electoral process.

Regional variations in democratic performance: The report provides insights into the state of democracy across different regions, revealing a complex global picture.

• Africa’s democratic performance has generally remained stable, with notable declines in the Sahel region, particularly in coup-affected Burkina Faso.
• Western Asia has seen poor performance in over a third of its countries.
• Europe has experienced widespread declines in aspects such as the rule of law and civil liberties, although improvements were noted in Montenegro and Latvia.
• The Americas have mostly maintained stability, but countries like Guatemala, Peru, and Uruguay have experienced declines.
• In the Asia-Pacific region, most countries have seen minor declines or stability, with improvements in Fiji, the Maldives, and Thailand, but significant declines in Afghanistan and Myanmar.

Importance of elections in democratic processes: Despite the challenges, elections remain crucial for maintaining and strengthening democracy.

• International IDEA’s Secretary-General, Kevin Casas-Zamora, emphasizes that elections are the best opportunity to end democratic backsliding and turn the tide in democracy’s favor.
• The success of democracy is intrinsically linked to the success of elections, highlighting the need for continued focus on electoral integrity.

Emerging threats to democratic processes: The report identifies new challenges that are impacting the democratic landscape.

• The use of artificial intelligence in campaigns is highlighted as a growing concern, potentially influencing electoral outcomes in unforeseen ways.
• Foreign interference and disinformation continue to pose significant threats to the integrity of democratic processes worldwide.

Analyzing deeper: The global decline in democratic performance raises critical questions about the future of governance and the resilience of democratic institutions.

• The trend of declining voter turnout and increased contestation of results suggests a growing disillusionment with democratic processes that could have long-term implications for political stability and legitimacy.
• As new technologies like AI become more prevalent in political campaigns, there is an urgent need for updated regulations and safeguards to ensure fair and transparent elections.
• The varied regional performances highlight the importance of context-specific approaches to strengthening democracy, rather than a one-size-fits-all solution.