Europe worries of being left behind in tech as US, Russia and China AI clout hovers like drones

European NATO allies are growing increasingly concerned about falling behind in the artificial intelligence arms race as the United States shifts its focus from Russia to China. This strategic pivot has left European nations questioning their ability to compete in AI-powered warfare, particularly as they face immediate security threats from Russia while lacking the advanced AI capabilities that could define future conflicts.

The big picture: Europe finds itself caught between immediate security needs and long-term technological competition, with limited access to frontier AI systems that could reshape modern warfare.

• While European countries excel at incorporating existing AI technologies into surveillance and drone systems, they lack the computing power and general AI capabilities that the U.S. and China are developing.
• “Europe has influence, but it is grappling with the difficult reality that they don’t have access or strong domestic development of frontier AI systems, and they are pretty far behind,” said Jonas Vollmer, chief operating officer of the AI Futures Project.

What NATO commanders are saying: Top alliance officials acknowledge the growing intelligence gap and are calling for increased contributions from key allies.

• Pierre Vandier, NATO commander tasked with transforming the alliance for future conflicts, specifically highlighted Britain’s intelligence capabilities: “The UK has this in its DNA.”
• Vandier warned that Russia’s strategy involves using “low-cost tests of drone incursions and cyberattacks to keep pressure on the alliance,” with the aim to “consume all our energy in purely defensive actions, which are very costly.”

Key strategic differences: European and American priorities in AI development reflect their distinct security challenges and economic structures.

• “While the U.S. is about winning the AI race, Europeans are watching what’s happening in Ukraine and saying, ‘we just need to deter Russia,'” explained Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.
• European tech companies “don’t hold the same pride of place in the European economic system” and aren’t driven by the same competitive pressures against China that motivate U.S. development.

Current European capabilities: Several European companies are developing AI-powered defense technologies based on lessons from Ukraine.

• German and French firms including Helsing, Azur and Quantum Systems are creating products informed by battlefield observations.
• European nations have successfully integrated data collection systems and automated surveillance into their defense departments.

The UK’s unique position: Britain emerges as Europe’s strongest AI player, ranking third globally in government AI research investment.

• The UK maintains “strong partnerships with some of the most powerful U.S. players” and has committed to integrating AI into its “NATO-first” national security approach.
• Britain’s recent defense strategy acknowledges that “forecasts of when Artificial General Intelligence will occur are uncertain but shortening, with profound implications for Defence.”

In plain English: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to AI systems that can learn and think like humans across any task, rather than being limited to specific functions like today’s AI. This represents a potential leap from current AI that excels at narrow tasks to systems that could match or exceed human cognitive abilities across all domains.

Russia’s AI limitations: Despite being Europe’s primary security threat, Russia lags significantly in AI development capabilities.

• “The key ingredients of being at the frontier with AI are talent and data centers,” Vollmer noted. “Russia lags far behind on both, but they can collaborate with China, of course.”
• This collaboration potential adds complexity to the global AI competition, potentially giving Russia access to advanced capabilities it cannot develop independently.

NATO’s response: The alliance is accelerating AI adoption, signing a deal with Palantir, a U.S.-based data analytics company, to incorporate AI into warfighting systems after just six months of negotiations—a notably rapid timeline for the typically deliberate organization.