China’s open-source AI surge challenges U.S. tech leadership and global influence

A significant shift in China’s AI strategy towards open-source technology is creating new challenges for U.S. technological leadership, particularly as Chinese AI models gain global adoption and influence.

Current landscape: Chinese companies like Alibaba and 01.AI are releasing highly capable open-source AI models that are becoming increasingly popular among developers worldwide.

• Chinese models such as Qwen, Yi, and DeepSeek rank among the most preferred and largest open models globally
• These models can be freely modified for different applications, making them attractive for developers
• Alibaba’s models alone receive millions of downloads monthly from developers

Strategic implications: China’s open-source approach could create global dependencies on Chinese technology, talent, and industry.

• Open models help overcome barriers to AI adoption including reliability, privacy, security, and cost concerns
• Developers can modify these models without sharing confidential data with Big Tech companies
• Meta’s open-source Llama model has achieved over 350 million downloads since 2023, demonstrating the demand for open AI solutions

Policy misalignment: Current U.S. policy focuses on preventing China from achieving AI parity with frontier labs, potentially missing the more immediate threat of Chinese open-source dominance.

• Some U.S. lawmakers are pushing for restrictions on open technology through licensing regimes
• The House has proposed export controls on AI models
• The administration is considering additional restrictions on computing hardware needed for AI development

Recommended actions: The incoming Trump-Vance administration has several options to maintain U.S. leadership in open-source AI.

• Invest in open development through the proposed U.S. sovereign wealth fund
• Create a unified national strategy promoting open innovation in AI
• Avoid restricting the release of useful open models through export controls or licensing regimes
• Streamline permits and energy access for open model development
• Prioritize open models for government applications

International context: Other nations are already making significant investments in AI development.

• Saudi Arabia, UAE, Canada, and France have each committed up to $100 billion in AI investments
• These investments include substantial funding for open model development
• Countries may “decouple” from U.S. technology if access to open innovation is restricted

Strategic considerations: The embedding of values and doctrine in AI models presents additional challenges beyond technical capabilities.

• Chinese models must adhere to Communist Party doctrine by law
• Alibaba’s models show evidence of political censorship
• These embedded values could influence global technology infrastructure if Chinese models become dominant

Future implications: The rise of Chinese open-source AI models could significantly reshape the global technology landscape while potentially diminishing U.S. influence in AI development and deployment, making it crucial for U.S. policymakers to balance security concerns with the strategic importance of maintaining leadership in open-source AI development.