China hawks are causing an AI arms race, experts warn

The escalating tensions between the US and China over artificial intelligence development are taking on characteristics reminiscent of Cold War-era arms race dynamics, with potential global implications for AI safety and international relations.

Key developments: The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) has released an annual report calling for a Manhattan Project-style program to develop Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

• The commission’s top recommendation urges Congress to establish and fund an AGI development program
• Commissioner Jacob Helberg claimed in Reuters that “China is racing towards AGI,” though the 793-page report provides minimal evidence supporting this assertion
• The recommendation defines AGI as systems that match or exceed human capabilities across all cognitive domains

China’s stated AI position: Chinese leadership has articulated a more measured approach to AI development that focuses on industrial growth rather than AGI pursuit.

• China’s 2017 Next Generation AI Development Plan aims for industry leadership by 2030 with relatively modest market projections
• Recent statements from President Xi Jinping frame AI as a “global challenge” requiring international cooperation
• Chinese authorities have implemented AI regulations that some experts consider more comprehensive than other nations’

Technical concerns: The USCC report contains multiple technical inaccuracies that raise questions about its authority on AI matters.

• The report confuses basic AI terminology, including misconceptions about ChatGPT and OpenAI‘s products
• There are inconsistencies in the report’s definition of AGI, making the primary recommendation unclear
• Technical errors suggest potential gaps in understanding that could impact policy recommendations

Policy implications: Recent US-China dialogues suggest potential for cooperation rather than competition in AI development.

• Biden-Xi discussions included AI as a shared challenge alongside climate change
• Chinese officials have expressed interest in international dialogue and cooperation on AI
• Only the US has formally proposed a militarized race toward AGI development

Historical parallels: The current narrative shows concerning similarities to Cold War misconceptions.

• The 1950s “missile gap” claims about Soviet nuclear capabilities proved largely unfounded
• Similar rhetoric is emerging in AI development, with claims of a “compute gap”
• Past arms race dynamics led to rushed decision-making and potential catastrophic risks

Looking beyond the rhetoric: The push for accelerated AGI development appears driven more by geopolitical positioning than concrete evidence of Chinese capabilities or intentions, presenting risks of unnecessary escalation in AI development that could compromise safety and international cooperation.