ChatGPT predicts this presidential candidate will win in 2024

AI predicts narrow victory for Kamala Harris in 2024 election: A new analysis using artificial intelligence suggests Vice President Kamala Harris is on track to win the 2024 presidential election with a slim margin in the Electoral College.

• British betting company Bonus Code Bets used ChatGPT, an AI language model, to assess the potential outcome of the election based on polling data, demographics, and historical results.
• The AI model predicts Harris will secure 276 Electoral College votes, compared to 262 for former President Donald Trump.
• This projected 14-vote margin would be the third-closest Electoral College victory in American history.

Key battleground states: The AI analysis indicates that Harris’s path to victory relies on winning crucial swing states, while Trump is expected to maintain a strong hold on traditionally Republican territories.

• Harris is predicted to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
• Trump is projected to secure Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
• The model emphasizes the importance of major cities in Michigan and Pennsylvania for Harris’s potential victories in those states.

Current polling and predictions: While the AI analysis suggests a Harris victory, other sources indicate the race remains extremely close, with Trump holding a slight edge in some projections.

• FiveThirtyEight’s model gives Harris a 1.4 point lead in the popular vote but predicts Trump has a 52% chance of winning the election overall.
• The discrepancy between popular vote and Electoral College outcomes highlights the potential for a candidate to win the presidency without securing the most votes nationwide, as occurred in 2016.

Importance of key states: The analysis underscores the critical role of individual states in determining the election outcome due to the Electoral College system.

• If Trump were to win either Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) or Michigan (15 electoral votes), it would be enough to change the projected result in his favor.
• The AI model suggests Harris’s success in these states will depend heavily on turnout in major urban areas like Detroit, Ann Arbor, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia.

Recent controversies: The election campaign has been marked by controversial statements from both sides, potentially impacting voter perceptions and support.

• President Joe Biden faced criticism for allegedly referring to Trump supporters as “garbage” during a Zoom call, though the White House claims he was specifically addressing “hateful rhetoric” from a recent rally.
• A comedian speaking at a Trump rally in New York sparked outrage by describing Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage.”

Betting odds and market sentiment: Despite recent controversies, betting markets have shown an increased likelihood of a Trump victory in the past 24 hours.

• Major bookmakers like Bet365 and Paddy Power have improved the odds for a Trump win, with some offering probabilities as high as 69.2% for his victory.

Analyzing deeper: While AI predictions offer an interesting perspective on the potential election outcome, it’s crucial to approach such forecasts with caution. The 2024 election remains highly competitive, with numerous factors that could influence the final result. As the campaign progresses, voter sentiment may shift in response to debates, policy announcements, and unforeseen events. Additionally, the reliability of AI predictions in complex political scenarios is still being tested, making it essential to consider multiple sources and traditional polling methods alongside these innovative approaches.