ASML vs Nebius Group: which AI stock fits your timeline

Investment firm The Motley Fool compares two Netherlands-based AI stocks—Nebius Group and ASML—as potential opportunities in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence market. The analysis highlights how both companies occupy critical but different positions in the AI ecosystem, with Nebius focusing on cloud infrastructure and ASML dominating essential chip manufacturing equipment.

What you should know: Both companies offer distinct investment profiles based on different time horizons and risk tolerances.
• Nebius Group operates AI-focused data centers equipped with thousands of Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs) and maintains a $19.4 billion contract with Microsoft for Azure cloud capacity.
• ASML, a Dutch technology company, holds a monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are essential for manufacturing the most advanced AI chips used by Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung, and Intel.
• Nebius stock has surged 257% in 2025, while ASML has gained 45% over the same period.

The big picture: The global AI market is projected to grow from $279 billion in 2024 to $3.5 trillion by 2033, creating substantial opportunities for companies across the entire technology stack.

Key details: Nebius Group has transformed from its previous identity as Yandex N.V., spinning off Russian assets after geopolitical tensions led to Nasdaq delisting.
• The company now operates AI infrastructure hubs across North America, Europe, and the Middle East, including one of the first publicly accessible data centers in Israel powered by Nvidia’s Blackwell chips.
• Management expects an annualized revenue run rate of $900 million to $1.1 billion by year-end and plans to have more than 1 gigawatt of computing power online by 2026.
• Nebius remains unprofitable due to capital-intensive data center construction but is expected to turn profitable in 2026.

In plain English: Think of Nebius as a company that builds and operates specialized computer facilities designed specifically for AI work, similar to how Amazon Web Services provides cloud computing but focused entirely on artificial intelligence applications.

Competitive landscape: ASML faces significant headwinds in China due to export restrictions imposed by the Dutch government.
• “We expect to see China customer demand and therefore our China total net sales in 2026 to decline significantly compared to our very strong business there in 2024 and 2025,” CEO Christophe Fouquet said.
• Despite China restrictions, ASML’s monopoly on EUV technology ensures continued demand from major chip manufacturers worldwide.

In plain English: ASML makes the only machines capable of creating the most advanced computer chips—imagine they’re the sole manufacturer of a critical tool that every major chip factory needs to produce cutting-edge processors.

Why this matters: The choice between these stocks depends largely on investment timeline and risk appetite.
• For long-term investors with five-year horizons, ASML offers a more established business model with deeper competitive moats.
• Short-term traders seeking one-to-two-year gains may find better opportunities with Nebius Group’s rapid growth trajectory and emerging profitability.