Amazon spent $75B in 2024 to meet AI demand — next year it will spend more

Cloud computing expansion fuels Amazon’s massive capital expenditure: Amazon plans to spend $75 billion on capital expenditure in 2024, with an even higher amount expected in 2025, primarily driven by the growth of its cloud computing business, Amazon Web Services (AWS).

• The surge in spending is attributed to rising demand for generative AI services and an increasing number of customers migrating their workloads from on-premises infrastructure to the cloud.
• AWS reported impressive Q3 2023 results, with net sales of $27.45 billion (up 19% year-on-year) and operating profit jumping almost 50% to $10.45 billion.
• Amazon CEO Andy Jassy highlighted recent customer deals with major corporations, including ANZ Banking Group, Booking.com, Capital One, and Toyota, as evidence of the growing enterprise adoption of cloud services.

Contradictory messaging raises eyebrows: Amazon’s communication to investors contrasts sharply with its recent statements to the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) regarding the health of the local cloud market.

• In its investor briefing, AWS emphasized continued business expansion and customer growth in the cloud.
• However, in its communication with the CMA, AWS claimed that customers repatriating workloads from the cloud posed stiff competition and highlighted the “attractiveness of moving back to on-premises” infrastructure.
• This discrepancy in messaging appears to be tailored to different audiences, with AWS attempting to downplay concerns about market dominance in regulatory contexts while emphasizing growth to investors.

Generative AI drives unprecedented growth: Amazon’s AI business is experiencing rapid expansion, contributing significantly to the company’s overall growth and capital expenditure plans.

• Jassy described the AI business as a “multibillion-dollar business” growing at triple-digit percentages year-over-year, outpacing even AWS’s early growth rate.
• The increased demand for AI services necessitates substantial upfront investments in datacenters, networking gear, and specialized hardware, particularly expensive AI accelerators and chips.
• Despite the high initial costs, Amazon views these investments as long-term assets, with datacenters having a useful life of 20 to 30 years.

Capital expenditure forecast and industry context: Amazon’s planned capital expenditure for 2024 and beyond represents a significant increase from previous years, reflecting the broader trend of massive investments in AI infrastructure among tech giants.

• The company’s expected $75 billion capex for 2024 is a substantial jump from the $48.4 billion spent in 2023.
• Amazon, like Microsoft and Google, has extended the lifespan of its servers to optimize costs.
• Currently, Amazon operates 353 datacenters across 38 markets, with an additional 45 sites under construction.
• Industry analyst Steve Brazier estimates that hyperscalers have invested approximately $200 billion in capex since the start of the previous year, putting pressure on investors seeking returns.

Challenges and opportunities in the AI landscape: The massive investments in AI infrastructure by tech giants like Amazon raise questions about the long-term profitability and sustainability of these initiatives.

• Brazier notes that despite the $200 billion in capex investments, only about $20 billion in revenue is currently generated from AI services for consumers and businesses.
• The success of the AI boom will largely depend on companies’ ability to rapidly increase revenue from end-user AI services, such as Copilot licenses and ChatGPT subscriptions.
• As competition intensifies, Amazon and other tech giants face the challenge of translating their substantial infrastructure investments into profitable AI-driven products and services.

Broader implications: The race for AI dominance among tech giants highlights the transformative potential of generative AI while raising concerns about market concentration and sustainable growth.

• The massive capital expenditures by companies like Amazon underscore the high stakes in the AI arms race, with potential implications for industry competition and innovation.
• As these investments continue to grow, regulators may face increased pressure to scrutinize the market power of dominant cloud and AI providers.
• The coming years will likely see intense competition among tech giants to monetize their AI investments effectively, potentially leading to rapid advancements in AI technologies and services for businesses and consumers alike.