AI’s limitations may shape geopolitics more than its capabilities

The evolving role of artificial intelligence in geopolitics requires a nuanced understanding of both its capabilities and limitations. While AI continues to reshape various domains of human activity, its impact on global power dynamics will be defined as much by what it cannot do as by what it can accomplish. Recognizing the boundaries of AI technology is essential for policymakers and strategists seeking to understand how these tools might reshape international relations in the coming years.

The big picture: AI’s influence on geopolitics encompasses both indirect effects on economic and social systems and direct applications in military and strategic decision-making.

• Economic projections from major consulting firms suggest AI could add between $13-16 trillion to global economic activity by 2030, representing approximately 16% of cumulative global GDP.
• Understanding AI’s fundamental limitations is crucial for accurately assessing its transformative potential in the geopolitical landscape.

Key details: AI’s impact on global competition will manifest through both economic pathways and direct strategic applications.

• Indirect effects include AI’s influence on productivity, economic growth, social stability, and social cohesion across different regions.
• Direct geopolitical applications encompass military uses and decision support systems within national leadership structures.

Behind the numbers: The substantial economic projections from McKinsey and PwC highlight AI’s potential value, but these benefits are unlikely to be distributed evenly across nations.

• The development of advanced AI systems requires massive infrastructure investments and specialized human capital, creating barriers to entry for many countries.
• Major powers like the United States and China are making substantial investments to secure competitive advantages in AI technologies.

Why this matters: The limitations of AI technology may prove just as consequential as its capabilities in shaping future geopolitical realities.

• AI’s integration with human systems and decision-making processes will determine its actual impact on international relations.
• As the article notes, “AI may well transform geopolitics, but our willingness to believe in its transformative power may prove to be its greatest impact of all.”

Implications: AI could introduce unpredictable disruptions to established geopolitical arrangements and power hierarchies.

• Nations that effectively harness AI capabilities while understanding their limitations may gain significant advantages in global competition.
• The gap between expectations and reality in AI capabilities could itself become a source of geopolitical miscalculation.