Ad spending resurgence: U.S. advertising expenditure is experiencing a robust rebound in 2024, with growth expectations surpassing initial projections.
- Media agency Magna has revised its U.S. ad spending forecast upward, now anticipating revenue growth of 11.4% to $377 billion for the year, an increase from the 10.7% growth predicted in June.
- The revision is attributed to improving macroeconomic conditions, strong demand in digital and streaming sectors, and cyclical events such as elections and the Summer Olympics.
- Cyclical events alone are expected to contribute $10 billion in increased spending, highlighting their significant impact on the advertising landscape.
Non-cyclical growth surprises: Beyond the expected boost from major events, non-cyclical ad spending is showing remarkable strength, indicating a broader industry recovery.
- Non-cyclical ad spending is projected to grow by 8.9%, up from the previously forecast 8.2%, marking one of the best performances for this category in two decades.
- The first half of 2024 saw non-cyclical U.S. advertising revenue grow by approximately 11%, aligning with expectations and demonstrating sustained momentum.
- This growth reflects a stronger appetite for brand building compared to 2023, with major marketers like Nike leveraging events such as the Olympics for significant ad campaigns.
Digital dominance continues: Pure-play digital channels are set to capture the lion’s share of the advertising rebound, fueled by technological innovations and increased marketer demand.
- Non-cyclical advertising sales in pure-play digital channels, including search, retail, social, and short-form video, are expected to grow by 13.6% to $264 billion, accounting for 72% of the total market.
- New artificial intelligence tools from major platforms like Google and Meta are credited with driving incremental spending from brands in the pure-play category.
- Ad-supported streaming emerges as the fastest-growing channel in 2024, with sales up by nearly 20% in the first half, bolstered by new entrants like Amazon Prime Video and improved ad tech from established players like Netflix.
Traditional media’s mixed fortunes: While benefiting from cyclical spending, traditional media faces challenges in maintaining growth without these event-driven boosts.
- Ad revenues for traditional media owners are projected to grow by 5.1% to $11 billion, largely due to cyclical spending.
- Excluding cyclical factors, traditional media ad revenues would decline by 1.5%, highlighting the sector’s dependence on major events for growth.
- In Q2, traditional ad sales reached $25 billion, down 1.3% year over year when excluding cyclical factors, underscoring the ongoing shift in advertising budgets towards digital platforms.
Political advertising impact: The election cycle is playing a significant role in driving ad spending, particularly in digital channels.
- Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign has ramped up advertising since entering the race, with a heavy focus on digital platforms.
- This trend reflects the growing importance of digital advertising in political campaigns and its contribution to overall ad spending growth.
Looking ahead to 2025: The advertising market is expected to maintain its strength, albeit with some adjustments due to the absence of major cyclical events.
- Non-cyclical ad spending is projected to grow 6.3% to $391 billion in 2025.
- Total ad sales will rise by 3.9% above 2024, a more modest increase due to the lack of events like the Olympics in odd-numbered years.
- Digital pure-play platforms will continue to dominate, growing 9.3% to $289 billion, while traditional owners are expected to decline by 1.5% to $102 billion.
- Search, commerce, and social media will gain 10%, accounting for two-thirds of all advertising in the U.S.
Broader implications: The robust growth in ad spending, particularly in non-cyclical categories, signals a shift in marketers’ strategies and confidence in the economic landscape.
- The strong performance of ad-supported streaming and continued digital dominance suggest a evolving media consumption patterns that advertisers are keen to capitalize on.
- While traditional media faces challenges, the overall growth in ad spending indicates a healthy advertising ecosystem adapting to new technologies and consumer behaviors.
- The industry’s resilience in the face of economic uncertainties points to the enduring value of advertising as a key driver of business growth and consumer engagement.
Magna: US ad spending rebound gathers force beyond cyclical events
