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AI progress breaks Moore’s Law as AGI looms, says Altman
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The development of artificial intelligence capabilities is progressing at a pace far exceeding Moore’s Law, with token costs dropping approximately 150x between early 2023 and mid-2024. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman‘s recent analysis suggests this acceleration signals artificial general intelligence (AGI) – AI systems that match or exceed human intelligence – is approaching faster than previously anticipated.

Key metrics and trends: Token costs for AI systems are declining at a rate of approximately 10x every 12 months, dramatically outpacing the traditional semiconductor industry’s growth curve defined by Moore’s Law.

  • ChatGPT’s operational costs have plummeted, with token prices falling about 150x in just 18 months
  • This cost reduction rate significantly exceeds Moore’s Law, which traditionally projected a doubling of chip components every two years
  • The accelerating pace suggests fundamental breakthroughs in AI efficiency and capability

Near-term predictions: Altman outlines several significant changes he expects as AI technology continues to advance rapidly.

  • Scientific research and discovery processes will accelerate substantially
  • Many consumer goods will become significantly less expensive due to AI-driven efficiencies
  • Certain limited resources, including land and luxury items, may see dramatic price increases

AGI timeline and implications: The rapid advancement in AI capabilities suggests significant societal changes are approaching within the next decade.

  • Altman predicts AGI could emerge as soon as 2025
  • By 2035, he envisions widespread access to AI systems with intellectual capacity equivalent to the entire human population of 2025
  • This democratization of advanced AI capabilities could fundamentally reshape economic and social structures

Potential risks and challenges: The development of AGI presents significant societal concerns that require careful consideration.

  • Authoritarian governments could leverage AI systems for enhanced surveillance and population control
  • Questions of equitable access and distribution of AGI benefits remain unresolved
  • The concentration of AI capabilities among a small number of organizations raises governance concerns

Strategic considerations: The accelerating development of AGI technology demands immediate attention to control and governance structures to ensure responsible deployment and equitable access while mitigating potential risks to society.

Sam Altman says AI is progressing faster than Moore’s law as he predicts AGI is ‘coming into view’, and it's leaving me worried about the future

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