AI policy in Trump’s second term

The future of artificial intelligence policy and regulation in the United States stands poised for significant shifts under a potential second Trump administration from 2025-2029, with implications spanning regulatory oversight, international trade, and domestic innovation.

Key policy reversals: The administration would likely take a markedly different approach to AI governance compared to current federal oversight.

• A potential repeal of Biden’s AI Executive Order could signal a broader deregulatory agenda
• Federal agencies would likely adopt a more hands-off approach to AI oversight and compliance requirements
• State-level AI regulations may face federal preemption to create a more unified national framework

International relations and trade: China-focused policies would take center stage in the administration’s AI strategy.

• Export controls on advanced AI chips to China would likely see further tightening
• Military and intelligence applications of AI would receive increased emphasis
• Competition with China would drive many aspects of domestic AI policy and investment

Business environment: Corporate interests would likely see reduced regulatory pressure and increased operational flexibility.

• Antitrust enforcement related to AI development would decrease under new FTC and DOJ leadership
• The autonomous vehicle industry would receive stronger federal support and guidance
• Industry leaders, including figures like Elon Musk, would likely have greater influence on policy direction

State versus federal dynamics: A push toward federal standardization could reshape the regulatory landscape.

• Current state-level AI regulations might face challenges from federal preemption efforts
• A more streamlined national regulatory environment would emerge
• Businesses operating across state lines could benefit from reduced compliance complexity

Looking ahead: While the policy direction appears to favor deregulation and business interests, the rapidly evolving nature of AI technology may require unexpected adjustments and responses during the four-year term. The administration’s ability to balance innovation with security concerns while maintaining U.S. competitive advantage will be crucial for American AI leadership.