AI may eliminate 50% of jobs by 2045—but the real crisis is psychological

Psychology Today psychologist Michael Mannino argues that widespread AI automation may eliminate jobs but create an existential crisis, as work provides identity, purpose, and community beyond just income. His analysis warns that while universal basic income might address economic needs, it cannot resolve the deeper psychological void left when humans lose their primary source of meaning and social connection.

The core argument: Work serves three essential human functions that go far beyond earning money—developing personal capabilities, fostering collaboration, and contributing to society’s needs.

• Drawing from economist E.F. Schumacher’s “Buddhist Economics,” Mannino argues that viewing work merely as a burden to eliminate ignores its role in human flourishing and self-realization.
• “The Buddhist point of view takes the function of work to be at least threefold: to give man a chance to utilise and develop his faculties; to enable him to overcome his ego-centredness by joining with other people in a common task; and to bring forth the goods and services needed for a becoming existence.”

The automation timeline: Current AI capabilities are accelerating toward mass job displacement at an unprecedented pace.

• McKinsey reports that 30% of current U.S. jobs could be completely automated by 2030, with 60% changed by AI tools.
• Goldman Sachs predicts up to 50% of jobs could be fully automated by 2045, though recent evidence suggests this timeline may be even shorter.
• AI capabilities are doubling every seven months across sectors including finance, media, education, and transportation.

The UBI limitation: Universal Basic Income addresses economic security but fails to solve the deeper problem of human purpose and fulfillment.

• While UBI decouples income from labor, it doesn’t replace work’s role in providing autonomy, competence, and social connection—three core psychological needs identified in Self-Determination Theory.
• The Japanese concept of “ikigai” (reason for being) traditionally combines what you love, what you’re good at, what the world needs, and what you can be paid for—but AI disrupts this final component.

The philosophical challenge: Capitalism’s drive to eliminate labor costs may undermine the very system that created AI.

• Mannino questions whether capitalism can survive in a post-work world, suggesting the need for fundamental economic restructuring through automation taxes, cooperatives, or entirely new frameworks.
• The risk is creating a society with “unprecedented productivity and an equally unprecedented crisis of meaning.”

What’s at stake: The outcome depends on whether society can redefine human purpose beyond traditional employment structures.

• “If we get this right, the age of AI could mark not the end of human work but its renaissance. But if we get it wrong—if we simply eliminate labor without rethinking what replaces it—we may find ourselves in a world where there is nothing left to do, and no reason left to do it.”
• Mannino references Star Trek’s Captain Picard: “We work to better ourselves and the rest of humanity,” suggesting a possible post-scarcity model where human motivation shifts from wealth acquisition to personal and collective improvement.