Futurist Lance Eliot, an AI expert and Forbes columnist, forecasts a potential “intelligence explosion” breakthrough that could rapidly transform conventional AI into artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2038-2039. This moonshot scenario represents one of seven possible pathways to AGI, contrasting sharply with gradual advancement models and potentially compressing decades of AI development into a sudden, chain-reaction-like leap forward.
What you should know: An intelligence explosion theoretically works like a nuclear chain reaction, where AI intelligence feeds off other intelligence to create exponentially more intelligence in rapid succession.
- The concept was first articulated by John Good Irving in 1965, who predicted that “an ultra-intelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make since it will lead to an ‘intelligence explosion.'”
- Unlike linear AI progression, this breakthrough would represent a sudden, discontinuous jump from current AI capabilities directly to human-level artificial general intelligence.
- The timeline assumes AI experts’ consensus prediction of AGI by 2040, rather than individual AI luminaries’ more aggressive 2030 forecasts.
The big picture: This intelligence explosion pathway stands as one of seven major routes Eliot identifies for reaching AGI, representing the most dramatic and unpredictable scenario.
- Linear path: Gradual, step-by-step advancement through scaling and engineering improvements.
- S-curve path: Plateau periods followed by breakthrough-driven resurgences.
- Hockey stick path: Slow initial progress followed by rapid acceleration at key inflection points.
- Rambling path: Erratic fluctuations including hype-disillusionment cycles and external disruptions.
- Moonshot path: Sudden, radical breakthroughs like intelligence explosions.
- Never-ending path: Perpetual pursuit without ever reaching true AGI.
- Dead-end path: Permanent barriers that make AGI ultimately unattainable.
Timeline forecast: Eliot’s speculative roadmap envisions steady but insufficient progress until a critical breakthrough moment.
- 2025-2038: AI advances through multi-modal integration, agentic capabilities, and world models, but AGI remains elusive, causing widespread doubt about its achievability.
- 2038-2039: Intelligence explosion occurs, producing “massive amounts of new intelligence” and self-improving AI systems that achieve human-level performance across all cognitive benchmarks.
- 2039-2040: Widespread consensus emerges that AGI has been attained through the intelligence explosion breakthrough.
Key controversies: The intelligence explosion concept faces significant skepticism and unresolved questions within the AI community.
- No credible evidence exists that intelligence can actually create chain reactions leading to exponential intelligence growth.
- The timeline remains completely uncertain—explosions could theoretically occur in seconds, years, or centuries.
- Starting mechanisms are unknown, with some believing it will happen naturally rather than through human intervention.
- Stopping mechanisms are equally mysterious, raising fears about accidentally overshooting AGI and reaching dangerous artificial superintelligence (ASI).
What this means: The intelligence explosion represents both humanity’s greatest opportunity and potentially its greatest risk in AI development.
- Success could solve humanity’s most pressing challenges through benevolent AGI partnership.
- Failure to control the process could result in ASI that views humans as unnecessary or enslaves them.
- The unpredictable nature means traditional AI safety measures may prove inadequate for managing such rapid transformation.
Recent Stories
DOE fusion roadmap targets 2030s commercial deployment as AI drives $9B investment
The Department of Energy has released a new roadmap targeting commercial-scale fusion power deployment by the mid-2030s, though the plan lacks specific funding commitments and relies on scientific breakthroughs that have eluded researchers for decades. The strategy emphasizes public-private partnerships and positions AI as both a research tool and motivation for developing fusion energy to meet data centers' growing electricity demands. The big picture: The DOE's roadmap aims to "deliver the public infrastructure that supports the fusion private sector scale up in the 2030s," but acknowledges it cannot commit to specific funding levels and remains subject to Congressional appropriations. Why...
Oct 17, 2025Tying it all together: Credo’s purple cables power the $4B AI data center boom
Credo, a Silicon Valley semiconductor company specializing in data center cables and chips, has seen its stock price more than double this year to $143.61, following a 245% surge in 2024. The company's signature purple cables, which cost between $300-$500 each, have become essential infrastructure for AI data centers, positioning Credo to capitalize on the trillion-dollar AI infrastructure expansion as hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Elon Musk's xAI rapidly build out massive computing facilities. What you should know: Credo's active electrical cables (AECs) are becoming indispensable for connecting the massive GPU clusters required for AI training and inference. The company...
Oct 17, 2025Vatican launches Latin American AI network for human development
The Vatican hosted a two-day conference bringing together 50 global experts to explore how artificial intelligence can advance peace, social justice, and human development. The event launched the Latin American AI Network for Integral Human Development and established principles for ethical AI governance that prioritize human dignity over technological advancement. What you should know: The Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences, the Vatican's research body for social issues, organized the "Digital Rerum Novarum" conference on October 16-17, combining academic research with practical AI applications. Participants included leading experts from MIT, Microsoft, Columbia University, the UN, and major European institutions. The conference...