AI in warfare: Build allied AI or risk fighting (and losing) alone

The United States military and its allies are actively incorporating artificial intelligence into their defense capabilities, with AI expected to enhance military effectiveness by 2029. However, the current pattern of independent AI development by individual nations threatens to create incompatible systems that could hinder joint military operations.

The current challenge: Military coalitions already face significant interoperability issues with conventional systems, and the introduction of AI technologies threatens to further complicate coordination efforts.

• Different nations are developing AI capabilities with varying technical standards, operational policies, and risk tolerance levels
• Autonomous systems from different countries may make contradictory decisions during joint operations
• Existing military coalition frameworks lack standardized protocols for integrating AI systems across allied forces

Strategic implications: The absence of coordinated AI development among allies could significantly impact their collective military effectiveness and response capabilities.

• Without aligned AI systems, coalition forces may struggle to conduct efficient joint operations in crisis situations
• Disaster response efforts could be hampered by incompatible autonomous systems
• The military advantage of Western allies could erode if they cannot effectively combine their AI capabilities

Current initiatives: While some collaborative efforts exist to address these challenges, they require substantial expansion and strengthening.

• The AI Partnership for Defense represents an initial step toward multinational cooperation
• More comprehensive frameworks are needed for aligning AI investments and strategies
• Technical standards and operational policies must be harmonized across allied nations

Path forward: Achieving effective military AI interoperability requires immediate and coordinated action among allied nations.

• Allied countries need to align their AI development investments and risk assessment methodologies
• Common technical standards must be established for military AI systems
• Shared operational policies and protocols should be developed for autonomous systems in coalition operations
• Training exercises should incorporate multi-national AI systems to identify and resolve integration challenges

Future implications: The effectiveness of military alliances in responding to future conflicts and crises will largely depend on decisions made about AI development in the immediate future, particularly as advanced capabilities become operational by 2029. A fragmented approach to military AI development could significantly weaken collective defense capabilities and limit the ability of allied nations to respond effectively to emerging threats.