AI, global security and the risk of war

The integration of artificial intelligence into military systems has raised concerns about its potential to influence international security and conflict dynamics.

Key security implications: AI technology’s rapid advancement is creating new considerations for military strategy and conflict risk assessment.

• The integration of AI into military systems could lead nations to develop dangerous theories of rapid, technology-enabled victory.
• Military planners may overestimate AI’s ability to provide decisive battlefield advantages, potentially leading to miscalculations about conflict outcomes.
• The acceleration of military decision-making through AI systems could compress response times and increase the risk of unintended escalation.

Historical patterns and precedents: Multiple conflicts throughout history demonstrate how technological overconfidence has led to catastrophic military miscalculations.

• Germany’s industrial and railway advantages contributed to overconfidence before World War I.
• Nazi Germany’s failed invasion of the Soviet Union stemmed partly from misplaced faith in technological superiority.
• American military planners overestimated the impact of advanced technology in both Vietnam and Iraq.
• Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine represents a recent example of military planning based on flawed assumptions about rapid victory.

AI-specific risk factors: The unique characteristics of artificial intelligence create distinct challenges for military planning and conflict prevention.

• AI systems can dramatically accelerate the pace of warfare, potentially overwhelming traditional command-and-control structures.
• The technology’s ability to rapidly process information and recommend actions could create a false sense of predictability in conflict outcomes.
• Partial advantages in AI capabilities might lead military leaders to underestimate the complexity and unpredictability of armed conflict.

Strategic implications: Modern military planners must carefully consider the limitations of AI-enabled warfare.

• Historical evidence consistently shows that technological advantages rarely guarantee quick or decisive military victories.
• The inherent complexity of warfare means that AI capabilities, while potentially significant, cannot eliminate fundamental uncertainties in conflict outcomes.
• Military decision-makers need to maintain realistic expectations about AI’s battlefield impact to avoid dangerous miscalculations.

Looking ahead: Tempering technological optimism: The intersection of AI and military planning requires a balanced approach that recognizes both the potential and limitations of advanced technology in warfare, with particular attention to how overconfidence in AI capabilities could increase the risk of conflict initiation based on faulty assumptions about quick victory.