Exponential View: 5 key tech and AI trends to watch

The evolving landscape of technological disruption: The latest edition of Exponential View explores several emerging technologies and their potential to reshape various sectors, from healthcare to warfare and geopolitics.

• GLP-1 drugs, even with limited medical use, could significantly impact US society, potentially transforming lifestyle choices and reducing violence if widely adopted.
• The increasing effectiveness of low-cost drones against major military assets is creating an “exponential asymmetry” in warfare, reminiscent of the historical shift from battleships to airplanes.
• China’s efforts to circumvent US technology controls in chip manufacturing highlight the critical importance of semiconductor technology in the AI-driven future.

GLP-1 drugs: A potential societal game-changer: The analysis of GLP-1 drugs presents three possible scenarios for their impact, with even the most conservative estimate suggesting significant societal changes.

• Medical use alone could have a substantial effect on US society, indicating the drug’s potent influence.
• More widespread adoption could lead to a transformation in how people approach lifestyle and food choices.
• The drugs’ potential to reduce societal violence adds another layer to their far-reaching implications.

The drone revolution in military strategy: Recent events highlight the growing asymmetry between low-cost consumer technology and traditional military assets, forcing a reassessment of defense strategies.

• Germany’s rerouting of commercial vessels around Africa due to inadequate naval protection against drones underscores this shift.
• The US is developing directed-energy weapons to counter the threat, signaling an arms race in drone and anti-drone technology.
• Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt’s suggestion to prioritize drones over tanks in military spending reflects the debate over the future of warfare.

Coexistence of old and new technologies: Despite the disruptive potential of drones, experts caution against completely abandoning traditional military assets.

• Historical precedent suggests new technologies often coexist with older ones rather than entirely replacing them.
• The next iteration of conflict is likely to see drones and conventional weapons used in tandem.
• Anti-drone weaponry is expected to improve, potentially neutralizing some of the current advantages of drone technology.

China’s semiconductor ambitions: The race for technological supremacy in AI and computing continues, with China making strides despite US attempts to limit its progress.

• US technology controls have slowed China’s advancement in chip manufacturing, but not as much as initially expected.
• Reports of Xiaomi creating a prototype 3nm system-on-a-chip suggest China is making progress in advanced semiconductor technology.
• The competition in chip manufacturing underscores the critical role of compute power in the AI-driven future.

The acceleration of technological disruption: The various developments highlighted in this edition of Exponential View point to an overarching trend of accelerating technological disruption across multiple domains.

• From healthcare to warfare and geopolitics, emerging technologies are challenging established norms and strategies.
• The rapid pace of innovation is creating both opportunities and challenges for societies, militaries, and governments.
• As these technologies continue to evolve, their potential to reshape global dynamics and power structures becomes increasingly apparent, necessitating adaptive and forward-thinking approaches from decision-makers in all sectors.