161 years ago AI doom was predicted by a New Zealand sheep farmer

A sheep farmer in colonial New Zealand penned one of history’s earliest warnings about the dangers of artificial intelligence, publishing a prescient letter that anticipated many modern concerns about machine consciousness and human-AI relations.

Historical context: In 1863, Samuel Butler, writing under the pseudonym Cellarius, published “Darwin among the Machines” in a New Zealand newspaper, drawing direct parallels between biological evolution and mechanical development.

• The letter appeared just four years after Darwin’s “Origin of Species,” applying evolutionary theory to technological advancement
• Butler’s perspective was shaped by the rapid industrialization of the Victorian era, as he witnessed machines becoming increasingly sophisticated
• Despite the primitive state of 19th century technology, Butler recognized patterns that suggested machines could eventually surpass human capabilities

Key predictions: Butler’s letter outlined several scenarios about the future relationship between humans and machines that mirror current AI safety concerns.

• He foresaw machines developing consciousness and self-replicating abilities
• Butler predicted humans would initially serve as caretakers for machines before becoming completely subservient to them
• The letter warned about the accelerating pace of mechanical evolution, suggesting it could outstrip human adaptation

Literary impact: Butler’s initial warning evolved into more detailed explorations of human-machine relations in his later work.

• His 1872 novel “Erewhon” expanded these ideas, depicting a society that banned mechanical devices to prevent machine dominance
• The novel helped establish the genre of technological cautionary tales that continues to influence science fiction and AI discourse
• Butler’s work represents one of the earliest literary examinations of potential conflicts between human and artificial intelligence

Modern parallels: Contemporary debates about AI safety and regulation echo many of Butler’s 19th-century concerns.

• Recent discussions about AI consciousness and autonomy reflect Butler’s predictions about machine evolution
• Current calls for AI regulation and control mirror Butler’s urgent warning about the need to limit mechanical development
• The accelerating pace of AI advancement validates Butler’s concerns about the rapid evolution of machine capabilities

Reading the future: The remarkable accuracy of Butler’s predictions, made with limited technological context, demonstrates how careful observation and logical extrapolation can illuminate potential futures that may take generations to materialize.

• His insights came from observing basic mechanical developments and applying evolutionary principles
• The letter’s warnings remain relevant to modern discussions about AI safety and human-machine relations
• Butler’s radical solution – destroying all machines – highlights the gravity with which he viewed this technological threat

Long-term implications: Butler’s 161-year-old warning raises questions about whether humanity has already passed the point of technological dependence he feared, making his prescribed solution of destroying machines no longer viable in our interconnected world.