Better old than young? In tech?! AI automation hits 22–25 year-old workers 12x harder

New research from Stanford economists reveals that AI automation is disproportionately impacting younger workers, with employment among 22-25 year-olds declining by 12 percentage points in AI-exposed fields since 2022. The findings suggest AI’s tendency to replace “book-learning” over experience-based knowledge is fundamentally reshaping entry-level job markets, particularly in software development where roles for young workers dropped nearly 20% in 2025 compared to their 2022 peak.

What you should know: The research tracked millions of payroll records through July 2025, providing real-time data on how AI deployment affects different age groups in the workforce.

• Workers ages 22 to 25 experienced the steepest employment declines, particularly in “AI-exposed” fields where automation replaces human tasks like software development and customer service.
• Software engineer positions for workers aged 22-25 declined nearly 20% in 2025 compared to peak levels in 2022.
• Marketing manager and sales roles showed similar but smaller-magnitude declines for younger workers.
• Older workers continue experiencing job growth despite AI’s expansion across industries.

Why younger workers are more vulnerable: Stanford economists propose that AI’s training process naturally targets the type of knowledge younger workers possess most.

• “By nature of the model training process, AI replaces codified knowledge, the ‘book-learning’ that forms the core of formal education,” the researchers explain.
• “AI may be less capable of replacing tacit knowledge, the idiosyncratic tips and tricks that accumulate with experience.”
• This dynamic explains why experienced workers retain advantages that AI cannot easily replicate.

The silver lining: Employment remains stable or grows in fields where AI augments rather than automates human work.

• “In jobs less exposed to AI, young workers have experienced comparable employment growth to older workers,” according to the study.
• Health aid positions like nursing aides, psychiatric aides, and home health aides show faster employment growth among younger workers compared to older ones.
• These roles demonstrate how AI can enhance rather than replace human capabilities.

Education implications: The research raises questions about higher education’s role in preparing workers for an AI-dominated job market.

• Occupations with higher percentages of college graduates show overall employment declines.
• Occupations with lower shares of college graduates experience employment increases.
• The findings suggest traditional educational pathways may need restructuring to remain relevant.

Industry predictions: AI leaders have acknowledged the threat to entry-level positions, with some predicting significant disruption within years.

• Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, whose company develops AI systems like Claude, has predicted AI could eliminate entry-level jobs within one to five years while potentially driving unemployment to 20%.
• AI-generated code typically requires human oversight, suggesting some demand for developer skills will persist.
• The technology’s imperfect automation capabilities mean complete human replacement remains unlikely in the near term.

Public sentiment: Americans remain wary of AI’s workplace impact, reflecting broader concerns about technological displacement.

• 71% of Americans fear AI will displace human workers, according to Reuters and Ipsos polling.
• This hesitancy aligns with the research findings showing measurable employment impacts already occurring.