Asimov’s predictions are coming to life in the age of AI

Isaac Asimov’s science fiction provides a compelling lens for examining humanity’s future choices between technological isolation or open exploration in an AI-transformed world. The contrasting societies in his novels—the wall-building Earthmen versus the space-colonizing Spacers—offer striking parallels to contemporary debates about technological progress. These fictional scenarios raise profound questions about our relationship with artificial intelligence and whether we’ll use technology to constrain or expand human potential.

The big picture: There are parallels between Asimov’s science fiction novels and our modern technological trajectory, examining whether humanity will choose isolation or exploration in the face of rapid AI advancement.

• In Asimov’s future world set in 4722 A.D., humanity splits into two divergent paths: the inward-looking “Earthmen” who reject robots and live in isolated domed cities, and the “Spacers” who embrace technology and colonize space.
• This fictional dichotomy serves as a framework for examining our present technological crossroads and the potential consequences of our choices regarding AI development.

Why this matters: The contrast between Asimov’s fictional societies highlights our current tension between technological advancement and societal adaptation, particularly as AI development outpaces regulatory frameworks.

• Western democracies are procedurally open, they’ve become increasingly influenced by oligarchic forces, with politicians operating within limited time horizons and institutional constraints.
• This governance gap has allowed tech companies like OpenAI and Google to lead technological progress, driven primarily by profit motives rather than societal benefit.

The technological trajectory: Corporate interests are accelerating AI development faster than governments can regulate them, potentially leading to profound societal restructuring.

• Tech companies with long-term visions and fewer bureaucratic constraints are moving too quickly for effective governmental oversight.
• This rapid progress raises questions about society’s ability to adapt when traditional jobs disappear and economic frameworks are fundamentally altered.

Speculative scenarios: Imagine a future where AI progress continues unchecked, creating stark divisions in human society based on valued cognitive traits.

• People with high creativity, intelligence, or specialized skills could thrive by using AI as a scaling tool for their talents.
• Those whose jobs are automated may become “without purpose or utility,” potentially leading to controlled birth rates and genetic engineering—ironically mirroring practices of Asimov’s fictional Spacers.

Reading between the lines: The parallel to Asimov’s fiction suggests we may already be inadvertently choosing our path—one that embraces technological progress but risks creating new forms of societal stratification.

• The essay frames our choices through the lens of science fiction while acknowledging that our actual future contains “a plethora of diverging dimensions” beyond simple binary outcomes.
• This work is a stepping stone toward the rationalist perspective valued in the LessWrong community, using speculative fiction as a tool for examining potential trajectories of AI development.