The evolving role of artificial intelligence in geopolitics requires a nuanced understanding of both its capabilities and limitations. While AI continues to reshape various domains of human activity, its impact on global power dynamics will be defined as much by what it cannot do as by what it can accomplish. Recognizing the boundaries of AI technology is essential for policymakers and strategists seeking to understand how these tools might reshape international relations in the coming years.
The big picture: AI’s influence on geopolitics encompasses both indirect effects on economic and social systems and direct applications in military and strategic decision-making.
- Economic projections from major consulting firms suggest AI could add between $13-16 trillion to global economic activity by 2030, representing approximately 16% of cumulative global GDP.
- Understanding AI’s fundamental limitations is crucial for accurately assessing its transformative potential in the geopolitical landscape.
Key details: AI’s impact on global competition will manifest through both economic pathways and direct strategic applications.
- Indirect effects include AI’s influence on productivity, economic growth, social stability, and social cohesion across different regions.
- Direct geopolitical applications encompass military uses and decision support systems within national leadership structures.
Behind the numbers: The substantial economic projections from McKinsey and PwC highlight AI’s potential value, but these benefits are unlikely to be distributed evenly across nations.
- The development of advanced AI systems requires massive infrastructure investments and specialized human capital, creating barriers to entry for many countries.
- Major powers like the United States and China are making substantial investments to secure competitive advantages in AI technologies.
Why this matters: The limitations of AI technology may prove just as consequential as its capabilities in shaping future geopolitical realities.
- AI’s integration with human systems and decision-making processes will determine its actual impact on international relations.
- As the article notes, “AI may well transform geopolitics, but our willingness to believe in its transformative power may prove to be its greatest impact of all.”
Implications: AI could introduce unpredictable disruptions to established geopolitical arrangements and power hierarchies.
- Nations that effectively harness AI capabilities while understanding their limitations may gain significant advantages in global competition.
- The gap between expectations and reality in AI capabilities could itself become a source of geopolitical miscalculation.
Recent Stories
DOE fusion roadmap targets 2030s commercial deployment as AI drives $9B investment
The Department of Energy has released a new roadmap targeting commercial-scale fusion power deployment by the mid-2030s, though the plan lacks specific funding commitments and relies on scientific breakthroughs that have eluded researchers for decades. The strategy emphasizes public-private partnerships and positions AI as both a research tool and motivation for developing fusion energy to meet data centers' growing electricity demands. The big picture: The DOE's roadmap aims to "deliver the public infrastructure that supports the fusion private sector scale up in the 2030s," but acknowledges it cannot commit to specific funding levels and remains subject to Congressional appropriations. Why...
Oct 17, 2025Tying it all together: Credo’s purple cables power the $4B AI data center boom
Credo, a Silicon Valley semiconductor company specializing in data center cables and chips, has seen its stock price more than double this year to $143.61, following a 245% surge in 2024. The company's signature purple cables, which cost between $300-$500 each, have become essential infrastructure for AI data centers, positioning Credo to capitalize on the trillion-dollar AI infrastructure expansion as hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Elon Musk's xAI rapidly build out massive computing facilities. What you should know: Credo's active electrical cables (AECs) are becoming indispensable for connecting the massive GPU clusters required for AI training and inference. The company...
Oct 17, 2025Vatican launches Latin American AI network for human development
The Vatican hosted a two-day conference bringing together 50 global experts to explore how artificial intelligence can advance peace, social justice, and human development. The event launched the Latin American AI Network for Integral Human Development and established principles for ethical AI governance that prioritize human dignity over technological advancement. What you should know: The Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences, the Vatican's research body for social issues, organized the "Digital Rerum Novarum" conference on October 16-17, combining academic research with practical AI applications. Participants included leading experts from MIT, Microsoft, Columbia University, the UN, and major European institutions. The conference...