North American Solidarity: USMCA could help secure $3.5 trillion AI market against China

The USMCA presents a strategic opportunity for North America to solidify dominance in the rapidly expanding global AI market, which is projected to reach $3.5 trillion by 2033. With China actively challenging U.S. leadership through aggressive national AI development policies, the trilateral agreement between the United States, Mexico, and Canada offers a framework for regional collaboration that could secure North America’s competitive advantage. This potential for cooperation becomes increasingly vital as AI transforms from an emerging technology into a foundational economic driver across industries.

The big picture: The global artificial intelligence market is experiencing explosive growth, with projections showing a potential value of $3,527.8 billion by 2033 and annual growth exceeding 30% between 2024 and 2033.

• North America already dominates this expanding market, generating approximately $100 billion annually in AI-related revenues.
• The growing competition from China and other global players makes regional cooperation through the USMCA increasingly strategic for maintaining North American leadership.

The competitive landscape: China has emerged as the primary challenger to North American AI dominance through systematic national development planning.

• China’s “New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan,” launched in 2017, aims to position the country as the world’s primary AI innovation center by 2030.
• Since 2021, China has surpassed the United States in the number of AI and machine learning patents filed, indicating accelerating innovation.

Regional capabilities: The three USMCA partners bring complementary but uneven AI development profiles to potential collaboration efforts.

• The United States maintains its position as the global AI technology leader, attracting $67.2 billion in private AI investment in 2023 alone.
• Canada established early leadership in AI governance by publishing the first National AI Strategy in 2017, creating a framework for responsible development.
• Mexico lags behind its northern neighbors in AI development, representing both a challenge and an opportunity for regional integration.

Strategic opportunities: The USMCA provides several pathways for enhancing North American AI competitiveness through coordinated action.

• Strengthening cross-border data flows would facilitate AI development that leverages the combined data resources of all three nations.
• Developing common AI governance frameworks could establish regional standards that balance innovation with responsible development.
• Harmonizing intellectual property standards would protect AI innovations while encouraging knowledge sharing across borders.
• Regional talent development programs could address workforce needs while distributing AI expertise more evenly across North America.
• Enhanced semiconductor supply chain resilience would secure the hardware foundation necessary for advanced AI development.