AI progress breaks Moore’s Law as AGI looms, says Altman

The development of artificial intelligence capabilities is progressing at a pace far exceeding Moore’s Law, with token costs dropping approximately 150x between early 2023 and mid-2024. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman‘s recent analysis suggests this acceleration signals artificial general intelligence (AGI) – AI systems that match or exceed human intelligence – is approaching faster than previously anticipated.

Key metrics and trends: Token costs for AI systems are declining at a rate of approximately 10x every 12 months, dramatically outpacing the traditional semiconductor industry’s growth curve defined by Moore’s Law.

• ChatGPT’s operational costs have plummeted, with token prices falling about 150x in just 18 months
• This cost reduction rate significantly exceeds Moore’s Law, which traditionally projected a doubling of chip components every two years
• The accelerating pace suggests fundamental breakthroughs in AI efficiency and capability

Near-term predictions: Altman outlines several significant changes he expects as AI technology continues to advance rapidly.

• Scientific research and discovery processes will accelerate substantially
• Many consumer goods will become significantly less expensive due to AI-driven efficiencies
• Certain limited resources, including land and luxury items, may see dramatic price increases

AGI timeline and implications: The rapid advancement in AI capabilities suggests significant societal changes are approaching within the next decade.

• Altman predicts AGI could emerge as soon as 2025
• By 2035, he envisions widespread access to AI systems with intellectual capacity equivalent to the entire human population of 2025
• This democratization of advanced AI capabilities could fundamentally reshape economic and social structures

Potential risks and challenges: The development of AGI presents significant societal concerns that require careful consideration.

• Authoritarian governments could leverage AI systems for enhanced surveillance and population control
• Questions of equitable access and distribution of AGI benefits remain unresolved
• The concentration of AI capabilities among a small number of organizations raises governance concerns

Strategic considerations: The accelerating development of AGI technology demands immediate attention to control and governance structures to ensure responsible deployment and equitable access while mitigating potential risks to society.