How to foster ‘mutually assured cooperation’ in the AI era

The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) technology presents unprecedented challenges to global security and nuclear deterrence, requiring a careful examination of international cooperation frameworks.

Key premise; Advanced AI systems could enable unprecedented military dominance, potentially triggering nuclear responses from nations seeking to prevent such scenarios.

• The development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) poses unique risks when pursued for national rather than global benefit
• The transition point where AI becomes a decisive military advantage may only be apparent after the fact
• Nations may feel compelled to use nuclear weapons preemptively if they perceive an existential threat from AI development

Strategic implications; The traditional framework of nuclear deterrence becomes increasingly unstable in the context of rapid AI advancement.

• Uncertainty about AI capabilities complicates traditional deterrence calculations
• The threshold for nuclear response becomes more ambiguous than in conventional conflicts
• Pre-emptive strikes become more likely as nations struggle to assess AI development milestones

Proposed solution; International cooperation in AI development emerges as the most stable approach to managing these risks.

• Centralized, transparent development under international oversight can maximize benefits while minimizing risks
• Early establishment of cooperative frameworks provides necessary security assurances
• The benefits of aligned AGI development match those of weaponized versions while carrying substantially lower risks

Implementation requirements; Successful international cooperation demands specific structural elements and commitments.

• Progressive development of international oversight mechanisms
• Transparent arrangements for slowing or pausing AI development when necessary
• Inclusion of all major global powers to prevent destabilizing exclusions

Risk mitigation strategies; A focus on mutual benefit and cooperation offers the most promising path forward.

• Nations should pursue incremental steps toward international cooperation
• Early recognition and communication of mutually assured destruction risks
• Emphasis on the disadvantages of weaponized AGI versus cooperative development

Looking ahead; While international cooperation in AI development presents significant diplomatic and technical challenges, it represents the only viable path to preventing destabilizing military competition and potential nuclear conflict. The success of this approach will depend largely on early adoption of cooperative frameworks before technological capabilities reach critical thresholds.