Swift Ventures’ new AI investment index separates hype from reality

The innovative approach: Swift Ventures has developed a first-of-its-kind scoring system to identify public companies making substantial AI investments rather than simply discussing AI in earnings calls.

• The venture capital firm utilized fine-tuned large language models to analyze earnings transcripts, hiring data, and research contributions
• Analysis revealed that while companies mentioned AI over 16,000 times in recent earnings calls, only a small percentage are making meaningful investments
• The index currently tracks approximately 90 companies using three key metrics: AI research and open-source contributions, AI talent density, and AI-derived revenue

Performance metrics: Companies meeting the index’s inclusion criteria have demonstrated exceptional market performance compared to traditional benchmarks.

• The index has shown 37% annual growth over three years, significantly outperforming both the Nasdaq (12%) and S&P (19%)
• Companies contributing to AI research and open-source models show notably higher profitability, with average gross profits of 55% compared to 25% for regular tech companies
• Under-the-radar companies like Doximity and Leidos have demonstrated growth rates exceeding 50% annually

Talent landscape: The index has exposed a significant disparity between companies claiming AI adoption and those actually investing in AI talent.

• Only about 200 public companies maintain more than 1% of their workforce in AI-specific roles
• This talent gap exists despite widespread claims about AI adoption across industries
• The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects unprecedented demand for AI engineers

Implementation and future plans: Swift Ventures has outlined a clear strategy for making the index accessible and potentially expanding its impact.

• The index will be available for free with quarterly updates
• The firm is considering launching an ETF in early 2025 based on investor interest
• The approach emphasizes programmatic scoring rather than subjective stock picking to ensure objectivity

Market implications: As private AI companies prepare for potential public offerings, this new benchmark could reshape how AI investments are evaluated.

• Companies like Databricks, Scale AI, and Anthropic are preparing for possible public offerings
• The index provides clear metrics for evaluating genuine AI investment and capabilities
• Corporate leaders now have specific benchmarks for measuring AI investment effectiveness

Looking ahead: This new methodology may become the standard for evaluating AI investments, potentially influencing both corporate resource allocation and investment strategies while providing much-needed clarity in distinguishing between companies genuinely investing in AI versus those merely adopting the terminology for marketing purposes.