Why the sunsetting of Windows 10 will drive big PC sales in 2025

The global laptop market is poised for modest growth in 2025, driven primarily by Windows 10’s end-of-life transition rather than the emerging AI PC segment.

Market outlook and key drivers: The laptop industry is expected to see a 4.9 percent growth in 2025, reaching 183 million units, with commercial upgrade cycles and Windows 10’s end of service playing central roles.

• TrendForce forecasts a moderate recovery in laptop shipments by the end of 2024, with a 3.9 percent year-on-year increase to 174 million units
• Political stability following the US presidential election and Federal Reserve rate cuts are expected to unlock delayed corporate purchasing decisions
• Windows 10’s end-of-service date in October 2025 is emerging as a significant catalyst for new device purchases

AI PC market dynamics: The impact of AI-capable laptops remains constrained by pricing premiums and market confusion.

• AI-capable PCs currently command a 10-15 percent price premium over standard laptops, deterring widespread corporate adoption
• Conflicting definitions of AI PCs between major vendors are creating market uncertainty
• Despite limited immediate demand, AI PCs represented 20 percent of distributor shipments in Q3 2024, indicating channel preparation for future sales

Supply chain considerations: Manufacturing dependencies and potential trade policies present significant market risks.

• China continues to dominate laptop production, accounting for 89 percent of total manufacturing capacity
• Companies are diversifying production to countries like Vietnam, Thailand, India, and Mexico
• Building comprehensive supply chain ecosystems outside China remains a long-term challenge

Corporate hesitation factors: Business adoption of new technology faces multiple obstacles.

• The lack of compelling business cases for AI PCs is dampening corporate enthusiasm
• Microsoft’s CoPilot+ PC certification requirements (40 TOPS or greater) and Intel’s broader NPU-based definition are creating market confusion
• Microsoft has intensified its Windows 11 migration push through aggressive full-screen advertising to Windows 10 users

Market uncertainties ahead: The global laptop market’s trajectory remains subject to several external factors that could impact growth projections.

• Potential changes in US trade policies and import tariffs could significantly affect market dynamics
• The pace of supply chain diversification efforts may influence pricing and availability
• TrendForce acknowledges that 2025 shipment forecasts may require adjustment as market conditions evolve

Future implications: While Windows 10’s end-of-life cycle will drive near-term sales, the industry faces a complex transition period as it balances traditional upgrade cycles with the emergence of AI capabilities, suggesting that the true impact of AI PCs may not materialize until compelling use cases emerge and pricing becomes more competitive.