Recent AI Developments Beg the Question ‘Have We Reached Peak Human?’

AI’s rapid advancement challenges human supremacy: The race to develop superintelligent AI systems is accelerating, with major players like OpenAI and Elon Musk’s xAI raising billions in funding to pursue this goal.

• OpenAI’s former chief scientist Ilya Sutskever recently raised $1 billion for his new company, Safe Superintelligence (SSI), which aims to safely build AI systems surpassing human cognitive abilities.
• Elon Musk’s xAI startup secured $6 billion in funding, with Musk predicting the achievement of superintelligence within five to six years.
• These massive investments add to the billions already poured into companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, highlighting the intense competition in the AI field.

The concept of “Peak Human”: 2024 may mark a pivotal moment in human history, as AI systems approach and potentially surpass human cognitive abilities across various domains.

• “Peak Human” is defined as the point when AI systems can cognitively outperform more than half of human adults.
• After this milestone, humans are expected to steadily lose their cognitive edge until AI systems can outthink even the most brilliant individuals.
• This shift raises concerns about the future role of human intelligence and creativity in a world dominated by AI.

AI’s performance on reasoning tasks: Recent tests have shown significant improvements in AI’s ability to handle complex reasoning tasks, bringing it closer to human-level performance.

• OpenAI’s “o1” system scored 120 on a standardized Mensa IQ test, exceeding the median human IQ score of 100 for the first time.
• On a custom “offline” IQ test designed to avoid training data bias, the o1 model scored 95, outperforming 37% of adults on reasoning tasks.
• This rapid progress suggests that AI models may soon be able to beat 50% of adult humans on standard IQ tests, potentially reaching the “Peak Human” milestone in 2024.

Collective intelligence as a human advantage: While individual human intelligence may be surpassed by AI, collective human intelligence amplified by AI systems could provide a competitive edge.

• Researchers at Unanimous AI have developed technologies like “Swarm AI” and “Conversational Swarm Intelligence” (CSI) to enhance group decision-making and problem-solving.
• In a 2024 study, groups of 35 randomly selected people using CSI achieved an average IQ score of 128 (97th percentile) when taking IQ tests collectively.
• This approach, termed “collective superintelligence,” could help humanity maintain its cognitive competitiveness even as individual human abilities are surpassed by AI.

AI’s progress in creativity and artistry: Beyond logical reasoning, AI systems are also making significant strides in traditionally human-centric areas such as creativity and art.

• Generative AI is estimated to produce 15 billion images per year, with this rate accelerating rapidly.
• A recent study suggests that AI chatbots can outperform humans on creativity tests, specifically in generating ideas for the Alternative Uses Test (AUT).
• These advancements challenge the notion that creativity is a uniquely human trait and further blur the lines between human and artificial intelligence.

Implications for humanity’s future: The rapid progress of AI towards and potentially beyond human-level intelligence raises important questions about our species’ future role and competitive advantage.

• The development of superintelligent AI systems may create an “evolutionary pressure point” for humanity, challenging our fitness as a species.
• There are concerns about potential conflicts between human interests and those of superior AI intelligences.
• The “Arrival Mind Paradox” highlights the disconnect between our fear of advanced alien intelligence and our relative complacency towards the AI systems we’re building.

Looking ahead: Balancing progress and protection: As AI continues to advance at an accelerating pace, it becomes crucial to consider the long-term implications and potential safeguards for humanity.

• The pursuit of collective superintelligence may offer a pathway for humans to remain cognitively competitive in the face of rapidly advancing AI systems.
• However, it remains uncertain how long humans can maintain an edge over purely digital AI systems, especially if AI development continues to accelerate.
• As we approach and potentially surpass “Peak Human,” it becomes increasingly important to develop strategies to protect human interests and values in a world where we may no longer be the most intelligent entities.