An Inside Look into the AI that May Predict and Prepare for Future Pandemics

Artificial Intelligence’s role in pandemic preparedness: AI is emerging as a potential tool to help predict, detect, and respond to future global pandemics, with researchers and organizations developing various applications to enhance preparedness.

• Experts predict a one in four chance of another Covid-19 scale outbreak occurring within the next decade, highlighting the urgency of developing effective pandemic response strategies.
• Researchers from the University of California, Irvine (UCI) and the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) are working on an AI-based early warning system that analyzes social media posts to predict future pandemics.
• The project builds upon a searchable database of 2.3 billion US Twitter posts collected since 2015, aimed at monitoring public health trends.

AI-powered pandemic prediction tools: Several AI applications are being developed to forecast potential outbreaks and evaluate the effectiveness of public health measures.

• UCI and UCLA’s tool uses machine learning to identify and categorize significant events from social media streams that may indicate an upcoming epidemic.
• EVEScape, developed by Harvard Medical School and the University of Oxford, predicts new coronavirus variants and has shown promise in forecasting mutations in other viruses like HIV and influenza.
• These tools aim to provide early insights for vaccine manufacturers and researchers developing therapeutics, potentially reducing response times during future outbreaks.

AI in pharmaceutical research: Major pharmaceutical companies are leveraging AI to accelerate drug discovery and development processes.

• AstraZeneca uses AI to speed up the discovery of new antibodies, reducing the time to identify target antibody leads from three months to three days.
• This accelerated process is crucial for pandemic preparedness, allowing researchers to keep pace with rapidly mutating viruses.

Limitations and challenges of AI in pandemic response: While AI shows promise, experts caution that it is not a panacea for preventing or slowing down pandemics.

• AI tools still rely on the quality and representativeness of input data, highlighting the importance of addressing issues like misinformation and biased datasets.
• Dr. Philip AbdelMalik of the World Health Organization (WHO) emphasizes that AI should not be seen as a decision-making tool but rather as a support for human decision-makers.
• Ethical concerns and the need for equitable representation in AI systems remain significant challenges in the field.

The human factor in AI-assisted pandemic response: Experts stress the importance of human involvement and interpretation in conjunction with AI tools.

• Dr. In-Kyu Yoon from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) notes that AI is a tool to increase the quality and speed of pandemic preparation, but its effectiveness ultimately depends on human application.
• The WHO’s Dr. AbdelMalik highlights the critical role of trust, relationships, and information sharing in pandemic preparedness, emphasizing that these human factors are as important as technological advancements.

Progress and future outlook: Despite challenges, experts believe that AI has contributed to improved pandemic preparedness since the Covid-19 outbreak.

• Nikki Thadani, involved in developing EVEScape, expresses optimism about the increased ability to handle future pandemics due to advancements in AI and epidemiological modeling.
• However, she also acknowledges that significant work remains in fundamental biology, modeling, epidemiology, and public health to enhance overall preparedness.

Balancing technology and human factors: While AI shows promise in pandemic preparedness, experts emphasize the need to address broader societal issues alongside technological advancements.

• Dr. AbdelMalik asserts that trust-building, improved relationships, and effective information sharing are equally, if not more, important than technological solutions in preparing for future pandemics.
• The integration of AI tools with human expertise and decision-making processes remains a critical factor in maximizing the potential benefits of these technologies in global health crises.